Heat vs Kings prediction
Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings, Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Golden 1 Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Heat 112, Kings 109.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Heat won 64% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Heat 18 pts · 10 reb · 3 ast
- Andrew Wiggins Heat 16 pts · 0 reb · 1 ast
- Darius Acuff Jr. Kings 25 pts · 4 reb · 6 ast
- Zach LaVine Kings 19 pts · 3 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 18 | 36 | 32 | 26 | 112 |
| SAC | 14 | 29 | 31 | 35 | 109 |
Top scorers: Darius Acuff Jr. 25, Zach LaVine 19, Giannis Antetokounmpo 18, Andrew Wiggins 16, De'Andre Hunter 15, Malik Monk 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 33 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Bam Adebayo | 33 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 3-13 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 32 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 6-7 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 27 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 7-9 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Klay Thompson | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pelle Larsson | 25 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 21 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Portis | 19 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 4-12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Richards | 16 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Simone Fontecchio | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 41 | 25 | 4 | 6 | 8-21 | 6-11 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 37 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 5-10 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Domantas Sabonis | 34 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 6-12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Zach LaVine | 29 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 8-13 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Precious Achiuwa | 22 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nique Clifford | 26 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Malik Monk | 18 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 6-10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dylan Cardwell | 17 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Leaky Black | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daeqwon Plowden | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Heat: Larsson 32 · Mitchell 31 · Adebayo 31 · Antetokounmpo 30 · Wiggins 24 · Portis 24 · Thompson 21 · Hardaway 19 (projected minutes)
Kings: Acuff 34 · Sabonis 32 · LaVine 29 · Hunter 27 · Achiuwa 26 · Black 24 · Cardwell 24 · Clifford 20 (projected minutes). Out: Maxime Raynaud, Keegan Murray
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Kings grab 26% of their misses (9th-fewest). Heat let opponents get 26% (5th-fewest).
Ball security. Heat turn it over on 14% of possessions (8th-fewest). Kings force turnovers on 14% (8th-fewest).
At the rim. Heat finish 66% at the basket (17th of 30; 29% of their shots). Kings allow 71% there (the highest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Antetokounmpo leads the Heat in scoring in 66% of sims.
Antetokounmpo posts a double-double in 55%.
Thompson hits 5+ threes in 17%.
Acuff leads the Kings in scoring in 52% of sims.
Sabonis posts a double-double in 53%.
Acuff hits 5+ threes in 20%.
What swings it
When Kings hit 14+ threes (34% of sims), they win 53%, up from 36%.
When Heat hit 15+ threes (33% of sims), they win 81%, up from 64%.
When Kings commit fewer turnovers than Heat (36% of sims), they win 52%, up from 36%.
Reality check
Heat score 121.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 121 against this defense.
Kings score 111.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.9 against this defense.
Antetokounmpo: 27.5 pts · 11.7 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 27.6 · 10.5 · 4.8.
Adebayo: 19.7 pts · 9 reb · 3.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17 · 8.2 · 4.
Acuff: 25.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 7.1 ast over his last 9. In the sims: 24.2 · 3.2 · 5.8.
LaVine: 20.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.9 · 2.8 · 2.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Heat win 64% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (MIA −8.5): the Heat cover in 45%.
Total 238.5: over in 44%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.