Heat vs Jazz prediction
Miami Heat at Utah Jazz, Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · Delta Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Heat 122, Jazz 112.
Final: MIA 115–109. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Heat 122, Jazz 112 (the Heat won 61% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Heat won 61% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Bam Adebayo Heat 28 pts · 9 reb · 5 ast
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Heat 28 pts · 14 reb · 4 ast
- Darryn Peterson Jazz 20 pts · 5 reb · 6 ast
- Isaiah Collier Jazz 16 pts · 5 reb · 7 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 37 | 29 | 29 | 27 | 122 |
| UTAH | 26 | 31 | 27 | 28 | 112 |
Top scorers: Bam Adebayo 28, Giannis Antetokounmpo 28, Darryn Peterson 20, Isaiah Collier 16, Jaxson Hayes 14, Ace Bailey 13
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 34 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 4-11 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 34 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 12-17 | 0-1 | 4-8 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bam Adebayo | 32 | 28 | 9 | 5 | 9-19 | 2-8 | 8-8 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 24 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Klay Thompson | 18 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pelle Larsson | 34 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Bobby Portis | 23 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 6-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Nick Richards | 17 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Simone Fontecchio | 17 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darryn Peterson | 32 | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9-18 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ace Bailey | 32 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 5-15 | 2-10 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 32 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 23 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2-10 | 0-4 | 3-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Okogie | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Collier | 22 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 5-11 | 0-3 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 18 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mo Bamba | 17 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 16 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 5-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Green | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Alexander | 12 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Kobe Bufkin | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tony Bradley | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 105 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Heat: Mitchell 32 · Larsson 32 · Adebayo 31 · Antetokounmpo 30 · Wiggins 25 · Portis 23 · Thompson 22 · Hardaway 18 (projected minutes)
Jazz: Peterson 30 · Bailey 29 · Hayes 24 · Okogie 21 · Collier 19 · Filipowski 18 · Mykhailiuk 17 · Sensabaugh 16 (projected minutes). Out: Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen, Jusuf Nurkic, Jaren Jackson Jr.
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Heat grab 25% of their misses (3rd-fewest). Jazz let opponents get 27% (9th-fewest).
In transition. Heat get out in transition 3rd-most in the NBA. Jazz allow 11th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Jazz turn it over on 15% of possessions (5th-most). Heat force turnovers on 15% (9th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Antetokounmpo leads the Heat in scoring in 67% of sims.
Antetokounmpo posts a double-double in 58%.
Thompson hits 5+ threes in 22%.
Peterson leads the Jazz in scoring in 29% of sims.
Collier posts a double-double in 18%.
What swings it
When Jazz hit 14+ threes (37% of sims), they win 56%, up from 39%.
When Heat hit 15+ threes (35% of sims), they win 78%, up from 61%.
When Jazz commit fewer turnovers than Heat (32% of sims), they win 55%, up from 39%.
Reality check
Heat score 120.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 120.8 against this defense.
Jazz score 111.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.1 against this defense.
Antetokounmpo: 28.1 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 27.9 · 11 · 4.7.
Adebayo: 19.2 pts · 8.8 reb · 3.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.9 · 7.9 · 3.7.
Peterson: 14.8 pts · 4 reb · 3.9 ast over his last 10. In the sims: 16.6 · 3.5 · 4.4.
Bailey: 13.1 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.9 · 5.6 · 2.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Heat win 61% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (MIA −6.5): the Heat cover in 46%.
Total 226.5: over in 70%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Ace Bailey2+ ast72%of sims64%books imply
- Isaiah Collier3+ reb57%of sims52%books imply
- Bam Adebayo4+ ast51%of sims46%books imply
- Isaiah Collier10+ reb + ast56%of sims52%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.