Heat vs Hawks prediction
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks, Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · State Farm Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Hawks 115, Heat 112.
Final: MIA 129–117. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Hawks 115, Heat 112 (the Hawks won 56% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Hawks won 56% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Heat 24 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast
- Bam Adebayo Heat 16 pts · 9 reb · 3 ast
- Jalen Johnson Hawks 25 pts · 11 reb · 6 ast
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Hawks 22 pts · 4 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 28 | 30 | 23 | 31 | 112 |
| ATL | 34 | 27 | 18 | 36 | 115 |
Top scorers: Jalen Johnson 25, Giannis Antetokounmpo 24, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 22, Pelle Larsson 16, Bam Adebayo 16, Bobby Portis 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 33 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 7-15 | 0-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Pelle Larsson | 33 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 7-14 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 29 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Davion Mitchell | 27 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 25 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 9-12 | 0-2 | 6-8 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bobby Portis | 30 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 6-13 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Nick Richards | 24 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Klay Thompson | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 16 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 37 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 9-15 | 0-3 | 7-10 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 33 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 7-13 | 4-7 | 4-5 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Dyson Daniels | 33 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 4-7 | 0-3 | 4-7 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CJ McCollum | 30 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 5-13 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 29 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luguentz Dort | 24 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Wilson | 22 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jock Landale | 19 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 13 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 105 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Heat: Adebayo 33 · Mitchell 31 · Larsson 31 · Antetokounmpo 29 · Wiggins 28 · Portis 25 · Hardaway 22 · Thompson 20 (projected minutes)
Hawks: Alexander-Walker 34 · Johnson 34 · Daniels 32 · Okongwu 30 · McCollum 29 · Wilson 23 · Dort 22 · Landale 20 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Hawks take 43% of their shots from deep (11th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.08 points a shot. Heat give up 43% of shots from three (9th-most).
At the rim. Hawks finish 66% at the basket (19th of 30; 29% of their shots). Heat allow 66% there (8th-lowest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Antetokounmpo leads the Heat in scoring in 59% of sims.
Antetokounmpo posts a double-double in 41%.
Thompson hits 5+ threes in 13%.
Johnson leads the Hawks in scoring in 36% of sims.
Johnson posts a double-double in 54%.
Alexander-Walker hits 5+ threes in 20%.
What swings it
When Heat hit 14+ threes (32% of sims), they win 62%, up from 44%.
When Hawks hit 16+ threes (35% of sims), they win 76%, up from 56%.
When Heat commit fewer turnovers than Hawks (39% of sims), they win 60%, up from 44%.
Reality check
Heat score 120.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.5 against this defense.
Hawks score 122 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.9 against this defense.
Antetokounmpo: 25.8 pts · 9.7 reb · 5.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 25 · 8.9 · 5.
Adebayo: 17 pts · 9.8 reb · 4.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.3 · 8.8 · 4.8.
Alexander-Walker: 22.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.4 · 3.6 · 3.9.
Johnson: 20.7 pts · 9.8 reb · 6.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21 · 9.7 · 6.9.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Hawks win 56% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.