Heat vs Clippers prediction
Miami Heat at LA Clippers, Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · Intuit Dome. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Heat 109, Clippers 104.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Heat won 55% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Heat 29 pts · 10 reb · 2 ast
- Davion Mitchell Heat 20 pts · 2 reb · 8 ast
- Darius Garland Clippers 14 pts · 1 reb · 7 ast
- Derrick Jones Jr. Clippers 14 pts · 8 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 31 | 22 | 27 | 29 | 109 |
| LAC | 33 | 31 | 21 | 19 | 104 |
Top scorers: Giannis Antetokounmpo 29, Davion Mitchell 20, Derrick Jones Jr. 14, Darius Garland 14, Bam Adebayo 13, Keaton Wagler 13
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 35 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 6-8 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Davion Mitchell | 35 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 8-14 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 28 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 25 | 29 | 10 | 2 | 10-15 | 1-2 | 8-10 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Klay Thompson | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-10 | 1-10 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pelle Larsson | 29 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bobby Portis | 21 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 19 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 4-5 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Simone Fontecchio | 15 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1-8 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Richards | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | 30 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Darius Garland | 28 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 4-11 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 24 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brook Lopez | 24 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Rui Hachimura | 23 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Jackson | 21 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Keaton Wagler | 20 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 7-8 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jalen Pickett | 19 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kobe Sanders | 18 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Gradey Dick | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Baba Miller | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Blake Wesley | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Martinelli | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Heat: Larsson 32 · Adebayo 31 · Mitchell 30 · Antetokounmpo 28 · Portis 26 · Wiggins 26 · Hardaway 22 · Thompson 19 (projected minutes)
Clippers: Garland 29 · Wagler 27 · Hachimura 27 · Dunn 26 · Jones 25 · Sanders 23 · Lopez 23 · Jackson 19 (projected minutes). Out: Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller, Max Strus, Bradley Beal
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Heat get out in transition 3rd-most in the NBA. Clippers allow 12th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Clippers turn it over on 16% of possessions (the most). Heat force turnovers on 15% (15th of 30).
Second chances. Clippers grab 26% of their misses (7th-fewest). Heat let opponents get 27% (19th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Antetokounmpo leads the Heat in scoring in 61% of sims.
Antetokounmpo posts a double-double in 42%.
Thompson hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Garland leads the Clippers in scoring in 46% of sims.
Garland hits 5+ threes in 14%.
What swings it
When Clippers hit 16+ threes (32% of sims), they win 65%, up from 45%.
When Clippers commit fewer turnovers than Heat (34% of sims), they win 62%, up from 45%.
When Heat hit 14+ threes (37% of sims), they win 71%, up from 55%.
Reality check
Heat score 123.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.9 against this defense.
Clippers score 110.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.5 against this defense.
Antetokounmpo: 26.9 pts · 10.4 reb · 5.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 25 · 9.2 · 4.6.
Adebayo: 18.1 pts · 8.9 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.9 · 7.9 · 4.2.
Garland: 18.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 5.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.8 · 1.8 · 5.4.
Hachimura: 14 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.7 · 4.5 · 0.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Heat win 55% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.