Hawks vs Wizards prediction
Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards, Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · Capital One Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Hawks 117, Wizards 113.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Hawks won 58% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jalen Johnson Hawks 21 pts · 9 reb · 9 ast
- CJ McCollum Hawks 18 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Trae Young Wizards 19 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
- Kyshawn George Wizards 17 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 30 | 28 | 30 | 29 | 117 |
| WSH | 36 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 113 |
Top scorers: Jalen Johnson 21, Trae Young 19, CJ McCollum 18, Kyshawn George 17, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 17, Will Riley 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 38 | 21 | 9 | 9 | 6-14 | 1-2 | 8-8 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| CJ McCollum | 32 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 6-16 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 29 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 6-11 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 28 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dyson Daniels | 27 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Kingston Flemings | 28 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 20 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 5-16 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Luguentz Dort | 20 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Wilson | 17 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 35 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 3-9 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Kyshawn George | 35 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 5-5 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Trae Young | 30 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 9-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 28 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Alex Sarr | 28 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 7-11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Anthony Gill | 25 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bub Carrington | 23 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 4-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 18 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Riley | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 8-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Hawks: Johnson 31 · Alexander-Walker 31 · Daniels 29 · Okongwu 28 · McCollum 26 · Wilson 25 · Dort 24 · Wiggins 24 (projected minutes). Out: Jock Landale
Wizards: Riley 33 · Davis 31 · Young 28 · Dybantsa 27 · Gill 26 · George 25 · Coulibaly 23 · Carrington 23 (projected minutes). Out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Hawks turn it over on 14% of possessions (7th-fewest). Wizards force turnovers on 14% (2nd-fewest).
In transition. Hawks get out in transition 2nd-most in the NBA. Wizards allow 8th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Wizards take 40% of their shots from deep (8th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.04 points a shot. Hawks give up 41% of shots from three (7th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Johnson leads the Hawks in scoring in 31% of sims.
Johnson posts a double-double in 51%.
Alexander-Walker hits 5+ threes in 17%.
Davis leads the Wizards in scoring in 37% of sims.
Davis posts a double-double in 50%.
What swings it
When Wizards hit 12+ threes (35% of sims), they win 58%, up from 42%.
When Hawks hit 16+ threes (29% of sims), they win 78%, up from 58%.
When Wizards commit fewer turnovers than Hawks (29% of sims), they win 59%, up from 42%.
Reality check
Hawks score 118.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116 against this defense.
Wizards score 111.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.4 against this defense.
Alexander-Walker: 22.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.8 · 3.3 · 2.3.
Johnson: 17.9 pts · 9.9 reb · 6.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.8 · 9.9 · 6.4.
Davis: 20.6 pts · 9.5 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.4 · 10.3 · 1.7.
Dybantsa: 18 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.5 ast over his last 2. In the sims: 14.5 · 4.9 · 1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Hawks win 58% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.