Hawks vs Rockets prediction
Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets, Monday, October 26, 2026 · Toyota Center (Houston). We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Rockets 117, Hawks 108.
Final: HOU 120–110. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Rockets 117, Hawks 108 (the Rockets won 57% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Rockets won 57% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jalen Wilson Hawks 18 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast
- Jalen Johnson Hawks 15 pts · 4 reb · 6 ast
- Alperen Sengun Rockets 22 pts · 8 reb · 4 ast
- Jabari Smith Jr. Rockets 21 pts · 8 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 31 | 29 | 27 | 21 | 108 |
| HOU | 30 | 37 | 28 | 22 | 117 |
Top scorers: Alperen Sengun 22, Jabari Smith Jr. 21, Kevin Durant 19, Jalen Wilson 18, Onyeka Okongwu 15, CJ McCollum 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 30 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 30 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 5-6 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jalen Johnson | 29 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 2-5 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| CJ McCollum | 29 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 6-19 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Dyson Daniels | 28 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Luguentz Dort | 17 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3-14 | 2-9 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen Wilson | 36 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 7-17 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Jock Landale | 24 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson | 38 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 37 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 8-15 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Kevin Durant | 35 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 5-11 | 1-3 | 8-10 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| Fred VanVleet | 32 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 5-11 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Alperen Sengun | 28 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 9-16 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Reed Sheppard | 17 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tari Eason | 34 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 19 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Hawks: Alexander-Walker 35 · Johnson 34 · Daniels 32 · McCollum 30 · Okongwu 29 · Wilson 23 · Dort 22 · Landale 20 (projected minutes)
Rockets: Thompson 38 · Durant 36 · Smith 35 · Sengun 32 · VanVleet 31 · Sheppard 25 · Eason 24 · Tshiebwe 21 (projected minutes). Out: Marcus Smart, Steven Adams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Hawks get out in transition 3rd-most in the NBA. Rockets allow 9th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
Second chances. Rockets grab 31% of their misses (the most). Hawks let opponents get 27% (11th of 30).
Ball security. Rockets turn it over on 15% of possessions (10th-most). Hawks force turnovers on 16% (4th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Johnson leads the Hawks in scoring in 35% of sims.
Johnson posts a double-double in 46%.
Alexander-Walker hits 5+ threes in 17%.
Durant leads the Rockets in scoring in 35% of sims.
Sengun posts a double-double in 30%.
Sheppard hits 5+ threes in 9%.
What swings it
When Hawks hit 15+ threes (30% of sims), they win 64%, up from 43%.
When Rockets commit fewer turnovers than Hawks (32% of sims), they win 74%, up from 57%.
When Rockets hit 12+ threes (35% of sims), they win 72%, up from 57%.
Reality check
Hawks score 123.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.4 against this defense.
Rockets score 122.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.2 against this defense.
Alexander-Walker: 23.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.8 · 3.4 · 3.5.
Johnson: 21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 7.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.1 · 8.8 · 6.9.
Durant: 25.4 pts · 5.8 reb · 6.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.9 · 5.2 · 4.7.
Sengun: 20.2 pts · 8.7 reb · 6.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.7 · 7.7 · 5.2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Rockets win 57% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Dyson Daniels12+ reb + ast54%of sims42%books imply
- Kevin Durant5+ ast50%of sims39%books imply
- Reed Sheppard3+ reb51%of sims42%books imply
- Dyson Daniels7+ reb56%of sims48%books imply
- Jock Landale8+ pts51%of sims44%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.