Hawks vs Bulls prediction
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls, Friday, November 13, 2026 · United Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Hawks 122, Bulls 117.
Final: CHI 125–117. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Hawks 122, Bulls 117 (the Hawks won 60% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Hawks won 60% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Hawks 29 pts · 2 reb · 5 ast
- Jalen Johnson Hawks 23 pts · 10 reb · 3 ast
- Jordan Hawkins Bulls 18 pts · 6 reb · 0 ast
- Nic Claxton Bulls 16 pts · 10 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 26 | 36 | 27 | 33 | 122 |
| CHI | 31 | 31 | 30 | 25 | 117 |
Top scorers: Nickeil Alexander-Walker 29, Jalen Johnson 23, Jordan Hawkins 18, Luguentz Dort 17, Nic Claxton 16, Tre Jones 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 31 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 11-23 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 31 | 29 | 2 | 5 | 10-15 | 6-9 | 3-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 30 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Dyson Daniels | 27 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 5-12 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| CJ McCollum | 18 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jock Landale | 31 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3-9 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Luguentz Dort | 27 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 24 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kingston Flemings | 22 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 30 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 7-8 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Giddey | 25 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jalen Smith | 23 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nic Claxton | 22 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Matas Buzelis | 21 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Patrick Williams | 26 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 24 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 7-10 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Miller | 20 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tre Jones | 19 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaac Okoro | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Zach Collins | 15 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 106 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Hawks: Johnson 32 · Alexander-Walker 29 · Daniels 29 · Wiggins 28 · Okongwu 28 · Dort 27 · McCollum 25 · Flemings 24 (projected minutes). Out: Jalen Wilson, Keshon Gilbert
Bulls: Williams 27 · Giddey 26 · Powell 25 · Buzelis 25 · Miller 22 · Okoro 21 · Smith 21 · Jones 21 (projected minutes). Out: Caleb Wilson
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Hawks get out in transition 2nd-most in the NBA. Bulls allow the most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Hawks turn it over on 14% of possessions (12th of 30). Bulls force turnovers on 13% (2nd-fewest).
Second chances. Hawks grab 27% of their misses (14th of 30). Bulls let opponents get 28% (5th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Alexander-Walker leads the Hawks in scoring in 38% of sims.
Johnson posts a double-double in 39%.
Alexander-Walker hits 5+ threes in 25%.
Powell leads the Bulls in scoring in 36% of sims.
Giddey posts a double-double in 25%.
What swings it
When Bulls commit fewer turnovers than Hawks (24% of sims), they win 61%, up from 40%.
When Hawks hit 17+ threes (31% of sims), they win 79%, up from 60%.
When Bulls hit 14+ threes (37% of sims), they win 58%, up from 40%.
Reality check
Hawks score 118.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 121.4 against this defense.
Bulls score 114.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.1 against this defense.
Alexander-Walker: 21.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.5 · 3.1 · 2.7.
Johnson: 18.7 pts · 9 reb · 6.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.7 · 8.6 · 5.9.
Powell: 17.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.8 · 2.3 · 1.1.
Buzelis: 13.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.8 · 4.6 · 2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Hawks win 60% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (ATL −6.5): the Hawks cover in 46%.
Total 246.5: over in 34%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Nic Claxton5+ reb + ast80%of sims94Our Rating86%books imply
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker15+ pts + ast88%of sims92Our Rating
- Dyson Daniels3+ ast91%of sims92Our Rating95%books imply
- Nic Claxton4+ reb74%of sims91Our Rating74%books imply
- Jalen Johnson7+ reb67%of sims90Our Rating83%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.