Hawks vs Bucks prediction
Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks, Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Fiserv Forum. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Hawks 120, Bucks 109.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Hawks won 61% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- CJ McCollum Hawks 24 pts · 3 reb · 5 ast
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Hawks 20 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast
- Cormac Ryan Bucks 29 pts · 4 reb · 4 ast
- Kyle Kuzma Bucks 17 pts · 10 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 29 | 26 | 26 | 39 | 120 |
| MIL | 19 | 37 | 28 | 25 | 109 |
Top scorers: Cormac Ryan 29, CJ McCollum 24, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 20, Kyle Kuzma 17, Jalen Johnson 16, Tyler Herro 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onyeka Okongwu | 33 | 14 | 12 | 1 | 6-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen Johnson | 31 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 6-12 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 30 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 6-11 | 1-5 | 7-8 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Dyson Daniels | 29 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| CJ McCollum | 24 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 8-17 | 4-7 | 4-5 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 27 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 5-13 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Wilson | 27 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 3-10 | 0-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Luguentz Dort | 24 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Kingston Flemings | 17 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | 31 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 29 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Myles Turner | 27 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 24 | 17 | 10 | 1 | 8-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Brayden Burries | 20 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Cormac Ryan | 39 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 9-19 | 4-9 | 7-7 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Ryan Rollins | 29 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Kam Jones | 19 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Nance | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Caris LeVert | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Hawks: Johnson 32 · Alexander-Walker 30 · Daniels 29 · Okongwu 29 · Wiggins 28 · Dort 26 · Wilson 26 · McCollum 25 (projected minutes). Out: Keshon Gilbert
Bucks: Herro 30 · Ryan 28 · Jaquez 26 · Turner 26 · Kuzma 26 · Nance 25 · Jones 23 · Rollins 23 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Bucks turn it over on 15% of possessions (5th-most). Hawks force turnovers on 16% (2nd-most).
In transition. Bucks get out in transition 4th-fewest in the NBA. Hawks allow 10th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Hawks take 44% of their shots from deep (11th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.05 points a shot. Bucks give up 45% of shots from three (3rd-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Johnson leads the Hawks in scoring in 32% of sims.
Johnson posts a double-double in 41%.
Alexander-Walker hits 5+ threes in 23%.
Herro leads the Bucks in scoring in 47% of sims.
Herro hits 5+ threes in 12%.
What swings it
When Bucks hit 16+ threes (31% of sims), they win 60%, up from 39%.
When Hawks hit 17+ threes (33% of sims), they win 81%, up from 61%.
When Bucks commit fewer turnovers than Hawks (19% of sims), they win 61%, up from 39%.
Reality check
Hawks score 118.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.3 against this defense.
Bucks score 107.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.3 against this defense.
Alexander-Walker: 20.7 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.6 · 3.5 · 2.6.
Johnson: 19.2 pts · 9 reb · 6.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.3 · 8.7 · 6.2.
Herro: 21.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.1 · 4.4 · 3.2.
Jaquez: 16.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 2.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.7 · 5.9 · 2.5.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Hawks win 61% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker15+ pts + ast82%of sims90Our Rating
- Dyson Daniels3+ ast92%of sims90Our Rating
- Myles Turner3+ reb88%of sims88Our Rating
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker15+ pts + reb83%of sims88Our Rating
- Tyler Herro1+ threes91%of sims87Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.