Grizzlies vs Wizards prediction
Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards, Monday, November 16, 2026 · Capital One Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Grizzlies 119, Wizards 115.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Grizzlies won 60% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Ty Jerome Grizzlies 30 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Jerami Grant Grizzlies 21 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast
- Trae Young Wizards 28 pts · 1 reb · 10 ast
- AJ Dybantsa Wizards 26 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 31 | 29 | 36 | 23 | 119 |
| WSH | 35 | 23 | 36 | 21 | 115 |
Top scorers: Ty Jerome 29, Trae Young 28, AJ Dybantsa 26, Jerami Grant 21, Cameron Boozer 20, Kyshawn George 18
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer | 35 | 20 | 16 | 8 | 6-17 | 3-7 | 5-6 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Zach Edey | 26 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ty Jerome | 25 | 30 | 2 | 3 | 9-18 | 5-9 | 7-7 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Cedric Coward | 25 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wells | 24 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jahmai Mashack | 34 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Jerami Grant | 24 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 8-9 | 3-4 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Small | 22 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Spencer | 17 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Stewart | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 35 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 7-17 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyshawn George | 35 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 6-14 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Trae Young | 34 | 28 | 1 | 10 | 7-16 | 2-10 | 12-12 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Alex Sarr | 30 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 26 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 9-16 | 2-4 | 6-8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre Johnson | 29 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Gill | 24 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Wizards are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Grizzlies: Boozer 29 · Jerome 28 · Coward 27 · Wells 26 · Grant 25 · Mashack 25 · Small 24 · Spencer 23 (projected minutes). Out: Scotty Pippen Jr., Quinten Post
Wizards: Young 34 · Davis 33 · Dybantsa 32 · George 32 · Coulibaly 31 · Johnson 28 · Sarr 26 · Gill 24 (projected minutes). Out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Grizzlies grab 28% of their misses (10th-most). Wizards let opponents get 29% (2nd-most).
At the rim. Wizards finish 69% at the basket (2nd-best; 28% of their shots). Grizzlies allow 67% there (14th of 30).
From three. Wizards take 39% of their shots from deep (5th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.01 points a shot. Grizzlies give up 42% of shots from three (19th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Jerome leads the Grizzlies in scoring in 56% of sims.
Boozer posts a double-double in 39%.
Jerome hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Davis leads the Wizards in scoring in 50% of sims.
Davis posts a double-double in 54%.
What swings it
When Wizards hit 11+ threes (37% of sims), they win 55%, up from 40%.
When Grizzlies hit 15+ threes (36% of sims), they win 79%, up from 60%.
When Wizards commit fewer turnovers than Grizzlies (42% of sims), they win 54%, up from 40%.
Reality check
Grizzlies score 118 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.1 against this defense.
Wizards score 110.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.6 against this defense.
Jerome: 24.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.8 · 3.1 · 3.9.
Boozer: 16.3 pts · 9.6 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.4 · 9.4 · 3.9.
Davis: 25.3 pts · 10.5 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 24.1 · 10.6 · 1.7.
Young: 19.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 8.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.7 · 3.4 · 7.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Grizzlies win 60% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Cedric Coward5+ reb + ast96%of sims87Our Rating
- Cam Spencer3+ ast85%of sims87Our Rating
- Ty Jerome15+ pts + reb91%of sims86Our Rating
- Ty Jerome20+ pts + reb + ast86%of sims86Our Rating
- Cedric Coward3+ reb97%of sims86Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.