Grizzlies vs Raptors prediction
Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors, Monday, November 9, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Raptors 116, Grizzlies 113.
Final: MEM 118–102. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Raptors 116, Grizzlies 113 (the Raptors won 64% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Raptors won 64% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jerami Grant Grizzlies 21 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast
- Ty Jerome Grizzlies 16 pts · 2 reb · 8 ast
- RJ Barrett Raptors 28 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast
- Malachi Smith Raptors 21 pts · 7 reb · 0 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 28 | 29 | 27 | 29 | 113 |
| TOR | 32 | 31 | 27 | 26 | 116 |
Top scorers: RJ Barrett 28, Jerami Grant 21, Malachi Smith 21, Jakob Poeltl 18, Ty Jerome 16, Allen Graves 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer | 33 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ty Jerome | 32 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 5-18 | 1-7 | 5-8 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Cedric Coward | 29 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 5-10 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Jaylen Wells | 22 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Edey | 18 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jerami Grant | 28 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 6-9 | 4-6 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Javon Small | 24 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 5-11 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| GG Jackson | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Cam Spencer | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 16 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi Smith | 43 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 9-13 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| RJ Barrett | 32 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 9-19 | 3-6 | 7-9 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jamal Shead | 32 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 29 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jakob Poeltl | 23 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 9-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Allen Graves | 23 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin McCullar Jr. | 14 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jamison Battle | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Anderson | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Trayce Jackson-Davis | 9 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Alijah Martin | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Bradley | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Grizzlies: Boozer 30 · Grant 29 · Jerome 27 · Coward 25 · Wells 24 · Spencer 23 · Small 23 · Edey 22 (projected minutes). Out: Scotty Pippen Jr., Isaiah Stewart
Raptors: Barrett 36 · Walter 32 · Smith 31 · Shead 28 · Poeltl 24 · Anderson 18 · Battle 18 · Graves 17 (projected minutes). Out: Scottie Barnes, Kawhi Leonard, Immanuel Quickley, Collin Murray-Boyles
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Grizzlies turn it over on 15% of possessions (10th-most). Raptors force turnovers on 16% (the most).
At the rim. Raptors finish 67% at the basket (9th-best; 30% of their shots). Grizzlies allow 68% there (8th-highest).
In transition. Raptors get out in transition the most in the NBA. Grizzlies allow 17th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Jerome leads the Grizzlies in scoring in 44% of sims.
Boozer posts a double-double in 27%.
Barrett leads the Raptors in scoring in 78% of sims.
Barrett posts a double-double in 28%.
Walter hits 5+ threes in 14%.
What swings it
When Grizzlies commit fewer turnovers than Raptors (26% of sims), they win 56%, up from 36%.
When Grizzlies hit 15+ threes (31% of sims), they win 55%, up from 36%.
When Raptors hit 14+ threes (37% of sims), they win 79%, up from 64%.
Reality check
Grizzlies score 114.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.7 against this defense.
Raptors score 118.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 118.9 against this defense.
Jerome: 24 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.7 · 2.7 · 4.2.
Boozer: 15.6 pts · 10 reb · 5.2 ast over his last 9. In the sims: 14.3 · 8.1 · 3.8.
Barrett: 21.5 pts · 6 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 29.9 · 7.6 · 4.1.
Walter: 10.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.7 · 4.6 · 2.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Raptors win 64% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.