Grizzlies vs Pelicans prediction
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans, Friday, November 13, 2026 · Smoothie King Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Grizzlies 120, Pelicans 106.
Final: MEM 142–111. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Grizzlies 120, Pelicans 106 (the Grizzlies won 54% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Grizzlies won 54% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Cameron Boozer Grizzlies 21 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast
- Ty Jerome Grizzlies 15 pts · 3 reb · 5 ast
- Jeremiah Fears Pelicans 22 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast
- Zion Williamson Pelicans 14 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 23 | 31 | 37 | 29 | 120 |
| NO | 35 | 20 | 26 | 25 | 106 |
Top scorers: Jeremiah Fears 22, Cameron Boozer 21, Ty Jerome 15, Isaiah Stewart 14, Olivier-Maxence Prosper 14, Zion Williamson 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Jerome | 30 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 6-13 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Boozer | 29 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 7-8 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Cedric Coward | 29 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 6-11 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylen Wells | 28 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Javon Small | 22 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jerami Grant | 27 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-11 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Cam Spencer | 20 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Stewart | 18 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 18 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 3-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| GG Jackson | 16 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Taylor Hendricks | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Fears | 33 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 9-19 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Zion Williamson | 30 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 18 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 18 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Herbert Jones | 15 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Saddiq Bey | 34 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3-15 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 32 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 4-14 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jordan Poole | 22 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Derik Queen | 16 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Reese | 11 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| AJ Johnson | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaron Pierre Jr. | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Grizzlies: Boozer 30 · Jerome 28 · Grant 26 · Coward 25 · Wells 25 · Small 23 · Spencer 22 · Stewart 20 (projected minutes). Out: Jahmai Mashack, Zach Edey, Scotty Pippen Jr., Quinten Post
Pelicans: Williamson 30 · Bey 28 · Fears 27 · Queen 23 · Jones 22 · Reese 22 · Poole 22 · Mathurin 19 (projected minutes). Out: Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, Yves Missi, Bryce McGowens
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Pelicans take 36% of their shots from deep (the fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Grizzlies give up 42% of shots from three (19th of 30).
Second chances. Grizzlies grab 28% of their misses (10th-most). Pelicans let opponents get 28% (6th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Jerome leads the Grizzlies in scoring in 52% of sims.
Boozer posts a double-double in 35%.
Jerome hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Williamson leads the Pelicans in scoring in 37% of sims.
Reese posts a double-double in 20%.
What swings it
When Pelicans hit 11+ threes (31% of sims), they win 61%, up from 46%.
When Grizzlies hit 16+ threes (37% of sims), they win 74%, up from 54%.
When Grizzlies commit fewer turnovers than Pelicans (40% of sims), they win 70%, up from 54%.
Reality check
Grizzlies score 116.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.9 against this defense.
Pelicans score 120.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.7 against this defense.
Jerome: 24.6 pts · 3.1 reb · 5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.8 · 2.9 · 3.9.
Boozer: 15.9 pts · 9.8 reb · 5.5 ast over his last 11. In the sims: 15.5 · 9 · 4.2.
Williamson: 21.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.8 · 4.7 · 2.3.
Bey: 15.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.6 · 3.3 · 2.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Grizzlies win 54% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (MEM −3.5): the Grizzlies cover in 47%.
Total 235.5: over in 45%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Zion Williamson15+ pts + ast81%of sims89Our Rating95%books imply
- Cedric Coward5+ reb + ast92%of sims88Our Rating
- Jerami Grant1+ threes76%of sims87Our Rating80%books imply
- Saddiq Bey3+ reb58%of sims87Our Rating86%books imply
- Cam Spencer3+ ast91%of sims87Our Rating80%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.