Grizzlies vs Jazz prediction
Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz, Monday, October 26, 2026 · Delta Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Grizzlies 122, Jazz 120.
Final: MEM 110–105. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Grizzlies 122, Jazz 120 (the Grizzlies won 60% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Grizzlies won 60% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Ty Jerome Grizzlies 27 pts · 3 reb · 7 ast
- Cameron Boozer Grizzlies 16 pts · 11 reb · 4 ast
- Brice Sensabaugh Jazz 17 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast
- Isaiah Collier Jazz 16 pts · 4 reb · 10 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 32 | 24 | 30 | 36 | 122 |
| UTAH | 28 | 32 | 37 | 23 | 120 |
Top scorers: Ty Jerome 27, Brice Sensabaugh 17, Isaiah Collier 16, Cameron Boozer 16, GG Jackson 16, Jaren Jackson Jr. 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer | 37 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 3-12 | 0-2 | 10-12 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 33 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ty Jerome | 30 | 27 | 3 | 7 | 12-23 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Cedric Coward | 30 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 5-7 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerami Grant | 23 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Edey | 22 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| GG Jackson | 21 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Jaylen Wells | 19 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Small | 19 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Sensabaugh | 35 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 5-12 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 32 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 7-13 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Darryn Peterson | 31 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 6-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | 30 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Ace Bailey | 28 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 6-10 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Keyonte George | 28 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 4-11 | 3-6 | 4-6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Collier | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 6-14 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Blake Hinson | 14 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 104).
Grizzlies are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Jazz are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Grizzlies: Boozer 34 · Grant 29 · Jerome 26 · Wells 25 · Coward 25 · Edey 25 · Small 25 · Prosper 23 (projected minutes)
Jazz: Markkanen 30 · Peterson 30 · Jackson 30 · Bailey 30 · George 27 · Sensabaugh 26 · Filipowski 24 · Collier 24 (projected minutes). Out: Jusuf Nurkic, Jaxson Hayes
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Grizzlies get out in transition 7th-most in the NBA. Jazz allow 2nd-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Grizzlies take 43% of their shots from deep (10th-most in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.06 points a shot. Jazz give up 44% of shots from three (4th-most).
Ball security. Jazz turn it over on 15% of possessions (7th-most). Grizzlies force turnovers on 15% (7th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Jerome leads the Grizzlies in scoring in 36% of sims.
Boozer posts a double-double in 44%.
Jerome hits 5+ threes in 8%.
Markkanen leads the Jazz in scoring in 27% of sims.
Filipowski posts a double-double in 22%.
What swings it
When Jazz hit 15+ threes (29% of sims), they win 60%, up from 40%.
When Grizzlies hit 15+ threes (34% of sims), they win 78%, up from 60%.
When Jazz commit fewer turnovers than Grizzlies (37% of sims), they win 57%, up from 40%.
Reality check
Grizzlies score 111.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 120.9 against this defense.
Jazz score 118.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.6 against this defense.
Jerome: 23.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 5.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.7 · 3 · 5.7.
Prosper: 16.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 12.6 · 3.5 · 0.9.
Markkanen: 21.9 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.4 · 6.5 · 2.
Jackson: 21.5 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.6 · 6.2 · 2.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Grizzlies win 60% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Isaiah Collier4+ ast90%of sims71%books imply
- Cedric Coward3+ ast66%of sims58%books imply
- Ace Bailey5+ reb63%of sims56%books imply
- Jaylen Wells2+ ast62%of sims56%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.