Clippers vs Suns prediction
LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns, Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · Mortgage Matchup Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Suns 115, Clippers 112.
Final: PHX 133–110. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Suns 115, Clippers 112 (the Suns won 51% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Suns won 51% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Keaton Wagler Clippers 17 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast
- Kris Dunn Clippers 15 pts · 5 reb · 2 ast
- Devin Booker Suns 29 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
- Miles Bridges Suns 17 pts · 9 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 33 | 33 | 20 | 26 | 112 |
| PHX | 20 | 32 | 30 | 33 | 115 |
Top scorers: Devin Booker 29, Keaton Wagler 17, Miles Bridges 17, Max Strus 15, Derrick Jones Jr. 15, Kris Dunn 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Garland | 34 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 4-15 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 32 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 7-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Rui Hachimura | 27 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kris Dunn | 26 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Brook Lopez | 22 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Max Strus | 29 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kobe Sanders | 23 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Jackson | 22 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Keaton Wagler | 21 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 6-6 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Gradey Dick | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Bridges | 34 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 6-15 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Devin Booker | 31 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 10-17 | 1-2 | 8-10 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Dillon Brooks | 28 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 5-13 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Green | 26 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Khaman Maluach | 19 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pat Spencer | 24 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 5-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 23 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Collin Gillespie | 20 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Kennard | 18 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 102).
Suns are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Clippers: Garland 31 · Hachimura 29 · Dunn 27 · Jones 27 · Strus 26 · Wagler 26 · Sanders 25 · Lopez 24 (projected minutes). Out: Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller, Bradley Beal
Suns: Booker 33 · Bridges 29 · Brooks 29 · Green 26 · Goodwin 22 · Ighodaro 22 · Gillespie 21 · Kennard 20 (projected minutes). Out: Mark Williams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Clippers turn it over on 15% of possessions (3rd-most). Suns force turnovers on 15% (5th-most).
In transition. Suns get out in transition 11th of 30 in the NBA. Clippers allow 2nd-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
At the rim. Clippers finish 69% at the basket (3rd-best; 28% of their shots). Suns allow 67% there (16th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Garland leads the Clippers in scoring in 44% of sims.
Garland hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Booker leads the Suns in scoring in 62% of sims.
Bridges posts a double-double in 22%.
What swings it
When Clippers commit fewer turnovers than Suns (29% of sims), they win 70%, up from 49%.
When Clippers hit 16+ threes (33% of sims), they win 69%, up from 49%.
When Suns hit 14+ threes (33% of sims), they win 70%, up from 51%.
Reality check
Clippers score 112.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.9 against this defense.
Suns score 109.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.3 against this defense.
Garland: 20.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 6.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.9 · 1.7 · 6.1.
Hachimura: 15.4 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.9 · 5.8 · 1.4.
Booker: 27.7 pts · 3 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 24.5 · 2.9 · 4.2.
Brooks: 15.9 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.9 · 3.7 · 1.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Suns win 51% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (PHX −3.5): the Suns cover in 43%.
Total 223.5: over in 47%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Keaton Wagler9+ pts78%of sims60%books imply
- Keaton Wagler10+ pts + ast86%of sims72%books imply
- Keaton Wagler10+ pts + reb88%of sims73%books imply
- Keaton Wagler4+ reb56%of sims42%books imply
- Kobe Sanders10+ pts50%of sims38%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.