Celtics vs Raptors prediction
Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors, Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Raptors 105, Celtics 102.
Final: BOS 98–93. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Raptors 105, Celtics 102 (the Raptors won 54% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Raptors won 54% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jayson Tatum Celtics 26 pts · 11 reb · 5 ast
- Payton Pritchard Celtics 14 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
- Immanuel Quickley Raptors 26 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast
- Collin Murray-Boyles Raptors 19 pts · 8 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 30 | 28 | 31 | 13 | 102 |
| TOR | 16 | 24 | 35 | 30 | 105 |
Top scorers: Immanuel Quickley 26, Jayson Tatum 26, Collin Murray-Boyles 19, Luka Garza 14, Payton Pritchard 14, RJ Barrett 13
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 34 | 26 | 11 | 5 | 7-19 | 2-8 | 10-10 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Devin Carter | 28 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 6-13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Derrick White | 25 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Neemias Queta | 19 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Jordan Walsh | 15 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Payton Pritchard | 28 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 6-12 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Hauser | 28 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-9 | 1-9 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luka Garza | 23 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 18 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Mike Conley | 9 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | 38 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 3-15 | 2-5 | 5-10 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Immanuel Quickley | 29 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 11-18 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jakob Poeltl | 21 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malachi Smith | 17 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 28 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 8-10 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Jamison Battle | 18 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Allen Graves | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jamal Shead | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Alijah Martin | 13 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Anderson | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin McCullar Jr. | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 102).
Celtics are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Celtics: Tatum 32 · Pritchard 29 · White 26 · Carter 26 · Scheierman 23 · Hauser 23 · Queta 20 · Robinson 20 (projected minutes). Out: Paul George
Raptors: Barrett 31 · Walter 27 · Quickley 26 · Smith 25 · Shead 25 · Murray-Boyles 22 · Poeltl 21 · Battle 17 (projected minutes). Out: Scottie Barnes, Kawhi Leonard
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Celtics get out in transition 2nd-fewest in the NBA. Raptors allow 2nd-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Second chances. Celtics grab 29% of their misses (4th-most). Raptors let opponents get 27% (9th-most).
At the rim. Celtics finish 68% at the basket (7th-best; 24% of their shots). Raptors allow 68% there (11th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring in 63% of sims.
Tatum hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Barrett leads the Raptors in scoring in 60% of sims.
Quickley hits 5+ threes in 9%.
What swings it
When Celtics hit 15+ threes (36% of sims), they win 65%, up from 46%.
When Raptors hit 15+ threes (33% of sims), they win 73%, up from 54%.
When Celtics commit fewer turnovers than Raptors (35% of sims), they win 64%, up from 46%.
Reality check
Celtics score 116.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.6 against this defense.
Raptors score 116.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112 against this defense.
Tatum: 26 pts · 6.5 reb · 7.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.9 · 5.6 · 4.7.
Carter: 15 pts · 5 reb · 3.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.6 · 4.4 · 2.1.
Barrett: 21.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.8 · 6.1 · 3.5.
Quickley: 14 pts · 3.3 reb · 5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.7 · 3.8 · 4.8.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Raptors win 54% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.