Celtics vs Hornets prediction
Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets, Friday, November 6, 2026 · Spectrum Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Celtics 115, Hornets 109.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Celtics won 60% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Paul George Celtics 23 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
- Payton Pritchard Celtics 16 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
- Brandon Miller Hornets 28 pts · 4 reb · 4 ast
- Dennis Schroder Hornets 16 pts · 3 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 33 | 39 | 22 | 21 | 115 |
| CHA | 30 | 26 | 29 | 24 | 109 |
Top scorers: Brandon Miller 28, Paul George 23, Dennis Schroder 16, Payton Pritchard 16, Royce O'Neale 16, Derrick White 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick White | 36 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 6-13 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Paul George | 28 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 7-13 | 4-7 | 5-6 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Neemias Queta | 26 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 19 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Walsh | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Pritchard | 32 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 5-14 | 4-11 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Hugo Gonzalez | 24 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 22 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2-12 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sam Hauser | 19 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Conley | 11 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luka Garza | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Miller | 37 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 11-24 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Moussa Diabate | 30 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sion James | 25 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Naz Reid | 23 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 4-8 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dennis Schroder | 21 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 5-13 | 0-3 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Grayson Allen | 31 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Coby White | 23 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 20 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Royce O'Neale | 17 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 5-7 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| PJ Hall | 11 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 99 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Celtics: Pritchard 30 · White 29 · George 29 · Hauser 24 · Scheierman 24 · Queta 22 · Robinson 19 · Walsh 17 (projected minutes). Out: Jayson Tatum, Devin Carter
Hornets: Miller 30 · Diabate 27 · Reid 27 · Schroder 26 · Allen 26 · James 23 · White 20 · O'Neale 20 (projected minutes). Out: Kon Knueppel, Grant Williams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Hornets take 49% of their shots from deep (the most in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.06 points a shot. Celtics give up 46% of shots from three (the most).
In transition. Hornets get out in transition 3rd-fewest in the NBA. Celtics allow 3rd-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Celtics turn it over on 14% of possessions (6th-fewest). Hornets force turnovers on 14% (7th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
George leads the Celtics in scoring in 40% of sims.
George hits 5+ threes in 18%.
Miller leads the Hornets in scoring in 52% of sims.
Reid posts a double-double in 18%.
Miller hits 5+ threes in 26%.
What swings it
When Hornets hit 16+ threes (39% of sims), they win 58%, up from 40%.
When Celtics hit 17+ threes (35% of sims), they win 79%, up from 60%.
When Hornets commit fewer turnovers than Celtics (27% of sims), they win 59%, up from 40%.
Reality check
Celtics score 119 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.2 against this defense.
Hornets score 104.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 107.9 against this defense.
George: 18.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.3 · 5 · 3.3.
Pritchard: 14.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.3 · 2.7 · 5.4.
Miller: 21.6 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.6 · 4 · 2.6.
Reid: 15.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 1.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.6 · 6.7 · 1.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Celtics win 60% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.