Celtics vs Bucks prediction
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks, Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Fiserv Forum. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Celtics 119, Bucks 100.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Celtics won 62% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jayson Tatum Celtics 33 pts · 5 reb · 4 ast
- Devin Carter Celtics 16 pts · 1 reb · 2 ast
- Tyler Herro Bucks 23 pts · 4 reb · 5 ast
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. Bucks 20 pts · 9 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 38 | 18 | 41 | 22 | 119 |
| MIL | 33 | 26 | 13 | 28 | 100 |
Top scorers: Jayson Tatum 33, Tyler Herro 23, Jaime Jaquez Jr. 20, Devin Carter 16, Paul George 14, Kel'el Ware 13
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick White | 36 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 5-13 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Jayson Tatum | 31 | 33 | 5 | 4 | 11-19 | 5-9 | 6-8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Paul George | 25 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Neemias Queta | 22 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Carter | 17 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 7-8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Pritchard | 28 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Luka Garza | 26 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sam Hauser | 25 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4-6 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 35 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 9-14 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Tyler Herro | 27 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 9-16 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Ryan Rollins | 25 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3-13 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 23 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Myles Turner | 19 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Cormac Ryan | 37 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| AJ Green | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kel'el Ware | 17 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brayden Burries | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pete Nance | 15 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Celtics: Tatum 33 · Pritchard 30 · White 28 · George 28 · Carter 26 · Scheierman 25 · Hauser 24 · Queta 21 (projected minutes)
Bucks: Herro 28 · Jaquez 27 · Green 26 · Ryan 26 · Turner 25 · Rollins 25 · Kuzma 25 · Burries 22 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Bucks take 46% of their shots from deep (5th-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.09 points a shot. Celtics give up 46% of shots from three (the most).
Ball security. Celtics turn it over on 14% of possessions (6th-fewest). Bucks force turnovers on 13% (the fewest).
In transition. Bucks get out in transition 7th-fewest in the NBA. Celtics allow 3rd-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring in 53% of sims.
Tatum posts a double-double in 24%.
George hits 5+ threes in 13%.
Herro leads the Bucks in scoring in 32% of sims.
Ware posts a double-double in 17%.
Green hits 5+ threes in 13%.
What swings it
When Bucks hit 17+ threes (36% of sims), they win 58%, up from 38%.
When Celtics hit 17+ threes (33% of sims), they win 81%, up from 62%.
When Bucks commit fewer turnovers than Celtics (28% of sims), they win 56%, up from 38%.
Reality check
Celtics score 117.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.5 against this defense.
Bucks score 110.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 109.3 against this defense.
Tatum: 26.3 pts · 7.7 reb · 7.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.1 · 7.1 · 5.1.
George: 17.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.9 · 4.8 · 2.6.
Herro: 19.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.4 · 4.8 · 4.
Jaquez: 17.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.1 · 4.7 · 3.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Celtics win 62% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (BOS −12.5): the Celtics cover in 34%.
Total 222.5: over in 53%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.