Celtics vs 76ers prediction
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Celtics 114, 76ers 104.
Final: BOS 123–101. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Celtics 114, 76ers 104 (the Celtics won 57% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Celtics won 57% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jayson Tatum Celtics 27 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast
- Paul George Celtics 20 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast
- Joel Embiid 76ers 28 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast
- Jaylen Brown 76ers 20 pts · 4 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 29 | 28 | 31 | 26 | 114 |
| PHI | 29 | 17 | 23 | 35 | 104 |
Top scorers: Joel Embiid 28, Jayson Tatum 27, Jaylen Brown 20, Paul George 20, Tyrese Maxey 18, LeBron James 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 35 | 27 | 6 | 4 | 8-15 | 3-4 | 8-8 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Derrick White | 30 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 5-10 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Paul George | 23 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 7-13 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Devin Carter | 21 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 5-12 | 3-7 | 4-6 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Neemias Queta | 18 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Payton Pritchard | 35 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Luka Garza | 26 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sam Hauser | 23 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 15 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 14 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 34 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 6-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LeBron James | 34 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 6-14 | 0-4 | 5-5 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Jaylen Brown | 31 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 8-18 | 2-5 | 2-6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Joel Embiid | 31 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 10-18 | 2-3 | 6-7 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| VJ Edgecombe | 28 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Simons | 31 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Rayan Rupert | 26 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Dean Wade | 25 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Celtics: Tatum 33 · Pritchard 30 · White 28 · George 28 · Carter 26 · Hauser 25 · Queta 20 · Robinson 19 (projected minutes)
76ers: Brown 34 · Maxey 34 · Edgecombe 32 · Simons 32 · Embiid 31 · James 30 · Rupert 29 · Wade 19 (projected minutes). Out: Dominick Barlow, Adem Bona
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. 76ers finish 64% at the basket (3rd-worst; 32% of their shots). Celtics allow 65% there (6th-lowest).
From three. Celtics take 46% of their shots from deep (4th-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.09 points a shot. 76ers give up 42% of shots from three (14th of 30).
Second chances. Celtics grab 29% of their misses (4th-most). 76ers let opponents get 27% (14th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring in 52% of sims.
Tatum posts a double-double in 19%.
George hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Maxey leads the 76ers in scoring in 33% of sims.
Embiid posts a double-double in 43%.
Maxey hits 5+ threes in 10%.
What swings it
When 76ers hit 13+ threes (35% of sims), they win 61%, up from 43%.
When Celtics hit 15+ threes (37% of sims), they win 76%, up from 57%.
When Celtics commit fewer turnovers than 76ers (40% of sims), they win 72%, up from 57%.
Reality check
Celtics score 116.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.8 against this defense.
76ers score 110.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 107.6 against this defense.
Tatum: 26.2 pts · 7.1 reb · 7.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22 · 6.5 · 4.9.
George: 18.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.2 · 4.8 · 2.4.
Maxey: 26.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.9 · 3.2 · 4.6.
Brown: 23.4 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.1 · 6.3 · 2.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Celtics win 57% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (BOS −1.5): the Celtics cover in 55%.
Total 217.5: over in 52%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Mitchell Robinson6+ pts63%of sims50%books imply
- Anfernee Simons7+ pts59%of sims51%books imply
- Sam Hauser10+ pts + reb52%of sims44%books imply
- Sam Hauser5+ pts71%of sims64%books imply
- Mitchell Robinson12+ pts + reb59%of sims52%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.