Cavaliers vs Thunder prediction
Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder, Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · Paycom Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Thunder 119, Cavaliers 112.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Thunder won 55% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Donovan Mitchell Cavaliers 21 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast
- James Harden Cavaliers 18 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Thunder 32 pts · 2 reb · 6 ast
- Ajay Mitchell Thunder 17 pts · 3 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 30 | 40 | 25 | 17 | 112 |
| OKC | 24 | 25 | 36 | 34 | 119 |
Top scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32, Donovan Mitchell 21, James Harden 18, Ajay Mitchell 17, Jaylin Williams 15, Mario Hezonja 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 34 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 6-15 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 31 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 6-10 | 3-4 | 6-6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Evan Mobley | 29 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 6-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jarrett Allen | 28 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 6-14 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Peyton Watson | 20 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Sam Merrill | 28 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Meleek Thomas | 22 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 5-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 21 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Mario Hezonja | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 6-9 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Thomas Bryant | 9 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 32 | 32 | 2 | 6 | 12-25 | 3-11 | 5-6 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 26 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 6-12 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 23 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Micah Peavy | 23 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared McCain | 18 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 4-11 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylin Williams | 29 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 5-10 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Aday Mara | 26 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Josh Dix | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenrich Williams | 16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Cavaliers: Harden 31 · Mitchell 30 · Mobley 29 · Merrill 28 · Allen 24 · Watson 24 · Thomas 23 · Hezonja 20 (projected minutes). Out: Jaylon Tyson
Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander 34 · Mitchell 28 · Hartenstein 23 · McCain 23 · Peavy 22 · Dix 21 · Mara 21 · Williams 20 (projected minutes). Out: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Cavaliers take 44% of their shots from deep (9th-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.07 points a shot. Thunder give up 44% of shots from three (5th-most).
Ball security. Thunder turn it over on 14% of possessions (3rd-fewest). Cavaliers force turnovers on 14% (13th of 30).
In transition. Cavaliers get out in transition 15th of 30 in the NBA. Thunder allow the fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in scoring in 36% of sims.
Mobley posts a double-double in 27%.
Harden hits 5+ threes in 8%.
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder in scoring in 79% of sims.
Hartenstein posts a double-double in 30%.
McCain hits 5+ threes in 10%.
What swings it
When Cavaliers hit 16+ threes (29% of sims), they win 66%, up from 45%.
When Thunder hit 13+ threes (36% of sims), they win 72%, up from 55%.
When Cavaliers commit fewer turnovers than Thunder (35% of sims), they win 61%, up from 45%.
Reality check
Cavaliers score 122.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.3 against this defense.
Thunder score 116.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.2 against this defense.
Mitchell: 23.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.3 · 4.2 · 4.8.
Mobley: 18.8 pts · 9.3 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.8 · 7.9 · 3.1.
Gilgeous-Alexander: 27.2 pts · 4 reb · 5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 30.7 · 4.3 · 4.9.
Mitchell: 12.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.6 · 3.3 · 4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Thunder win 55% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.