Cavaliers vs Knicks prediction
Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks, Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · Madison Square Garden. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Knicks 114, Cavaliers 109.
Final: CLE 115–107. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Knicks 114, Cavaliers 109 (the Knicks won 58% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Knicks won 58% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Donovan Mitchell Cavaliers 23 pts · 2 reb · 6 ast
- Evan Mobley Cavaliers 23 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast
- Jalen Brunson Knicks 33 pts · 2 reb · 5 ast
- Karl-Anthony Towns Knicks 24 pts · 19 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 31 | 32 | 27 | 19 | 109 |
| NY | 33 | 31 | 21 | 29 | 114 |
Top scorers: Jalen Brunson 33, Karl-Anthony Towns 24, Evan Mobley 23, Donovan Mitchell 23, OG Anunoby 17, Peyton Watson 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | 36 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 7-14 | 4-8 | 5-6 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| James Harden | 33 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 3-18 | 1-9 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Peyton Watson | 30 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 5-9 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Evan Mobley | 26 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 9-14 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Jarrett Allen | 22 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaylon Tyson | 29 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Meleek Thomas | 22 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Mario Hezonja | 21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Bryant | 14 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 32 | 24 | 19 | 2 | 9-16 | 2-4 | 4-6 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Hart | 32 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jalen Brunson | 31 | 33 | 2 | 5 | 13-25 | 4-9 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| OG Anunoby | 31 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 6-12 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Mikal Bridges | 25 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Landry Shamet | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-6 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jose Alvarado | 25 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Miles McBride | 21 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 5-11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Andre Drummond | 12 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Kolek | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 102).
Knicks are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Cavaliers: Mitchell 31 · Harden 30 · Mobley 29 · Thomas 25 · Watson 24 · Allen 24 · Tyson 23 · Hezonja 22 (projected minutes). Out: Sam Merrill
Knicks: Brunson 32 · Anunoby 30 · Towns 29 · Hart 29 · Shamet 27 · Bridges 25 · McBride 21 · Drummond 17 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Knicks finish 64% at the basket (3rd-worst; 30% of their shots). Cavaliers allow 64% there (3rd-lowest).
From three. Cavaliers take 45% of their shots from deep (7th-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.07 points a shot. Knicks give up 46% of shots from three (2nd-most).
Second chances. Cavaliers grab 26% of their misses (10th-fewest). Knicks let opponents get 25% (2nd-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in scoring in 42% of sims.
Allen posts a double-double in 17%.
Mitchell hits 5+ threes in 9%.
Brunson leads the Knicks in scoring in 57% of sims.
Towns posts a double-double in 63%.
Brunson hits 5+ threes in 13%.
What swings it
When Cavaliers hit 15+ threes (36% of sims), they win 59%, up from 42%.
When Knicks hit 17+ threes (34% of sims), they win 78%, up from 58%.
When Cavaliers commit fewer turnovers than Knicks (45% of sims), they win 55%, up from 42%.
Reality check
Cavaliers score 118.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.8 against this defense.
Knicks score 111.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.3 against this defense.
Mitchell: 23.5 pts · 5 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.8 · 4.1 · 5.5.
Mobley: 16.9 pts · 7.4 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.8 · 6.1 · 3.2.
Brunson: 26.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 25.2 · 2.7 · 4.9.
Towns: 20.6 pts · 13.3 reb · 3.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.1 · 12.3 · 2.8.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Knicks win 58% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.