Cavaliers vs Hornets prediction
Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets, Monday, November 9, 2026 · Spectrum Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Cavaliers 111, Hornets 109.
Final: CHA 124–112. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Cavaliers 111, Hornets 109 (the Cavaliers won 54% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Cavaliers won 54% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Donovan Mitchell Cavaliers 26 pts · 3 reb · 8 ast
- Jarrett Allen Cavaliers 20 pts · 11 reb · 3 ast
- Coby White Hornets 18 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast
- Naz Reid Hornets 15 pts · 5 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 24 | 32 | 32 | 23 | 111 |
| CHA | 27 | 22 | 30 | 30 | 109 |
Top scorers: Donovan Mitchell 26, Jarrett Allen 20, Coby White 18, Evan Mobley 17, Naz Reid 15, Grayson Allen 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | 40 | 26 | 3 | 8 | 9-15 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| James Harden | 39 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 3-11 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Evan Mobley | 36 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 8-10 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Jarrett Allen | 32 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Peyton Watson | 27 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Meleek Thomas | 21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Hezonja | 19 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Porter Jr. | 11 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Bryant | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson Allen | 38 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 9-10 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Naz Reid | 31 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 6-14 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Coby White | 28 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 8-14 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sion James | 26 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PJ Hall | 24 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Royce O'Neale | 20 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 19 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Hannes Steinbach | 17 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 15 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 4-11 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Anderson | 14 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Liam McNeeley | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Cavaliers: Mitchell 32 · Harden 31 · Mobley 30 · Thomas 25 · Watson 24 · Allen 24 · Hezonja 22 · Proctor 19 (projected minutes). Out: Sam Merrill, Jaylon Tyson
Hornets: Reid 32 · Allen 31 · James 28 · O'Neale 24 · White 23 · Kalkbrenner 23 · Hall 19 · Salaun 17 (projected minutes). Out: Brandon Miller, Moussa Diabate, Kon Knueppel, Dennis Schroder
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Hornets finish 66% at the basket (7th-worst; 27% of their shots). Cavaliers allow 64% there (3rd-lowest).
From three. Hornets take 49% of their shots from deep (the most in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.04 points a shot. Cavaliers give up 43% of shots from three (11th of 30).
Ball security. Cavaliers turn it over on 14% of possessions (5th-fewest). Hornets force turnovers on 14% (10th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in scoring in 45% of sims.
Mobley posts a double-double in 21%.
Mitchell hits 5+ threes in 13%.
Reid leads the Hornets in scoring in 46% of sims.
Reid posts a double-double in 27%.
Reid hits 5+ threes in 24%.
What swings it
When Hornets hit 17+ threes (39% of sims), they win 65%, up from 46%.
When Cavaliers hit 15+ threes (33% of sims), they win 74%, up from 54%.
When Hornets commit fewer turnovers than Cavaliers (33% of sims), they win 63%, up from 46%.
Reality check
Cavaliers score 118.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.3 against this defense.
Hornets score 101.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.4 against this defense.
Mitchell: 25.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 5.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.9 · 4.2 · 5.6.
Mobley: 18 pts · 8.8 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.7 · 7 · 3.1.
Reid: 16.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.2 · 7.6 · 2.1.
Allen: 13.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.6 · 3.3 · 4.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Cavaliers win 54% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.