Cavaliers vs Heat prediction
Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, Friday, November 13, 2026 · Kaseya Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Cavaliers 124, Heat 117.
Final: MIA 133–121. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Cavaliers 124, Heat 117 (the Cavaliers won 53% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Cavaliers won 53% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Meleek Thomas Cavaliers 19 pts · 1 reb · 1 ast
- Jarrett Allen Cavaliers 16 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Heat 37 pts · 15 reb · 8 ast
- Bam Adebayo Heat 19 pts · 8 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 40 | 23 | 30 | 31 | 124 |
| MIA | 25 | 38 | 26 | 28 | 117 |
Top scorers: Giannis Antetokounmpo 37, Meleek Thomas 19, Bam Adebayo 19, Jarrett Allen 16, Donovan Mitchell 15, Jaylon Tyson 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 27 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 4-11 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Jarrett Allen | 27 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 26 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 7-8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Tyson | 21 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 4-9 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Peyton Watson | 19 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Meleek Thomas | 25 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 8-12 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 23 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 5-10 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Hezonja | 21 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Craig Porter Jr. | 20 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Thomas Bryant | 19 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Riley Minix | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Norchad Omier | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 39 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 5-8 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 36 | 37 | 15 | 8 | 15-23 | 1-3 | 6-14 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Davion Mitchell | 33 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 24 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Richards | 17 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Keshad Johnson | 22 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 4-9 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bobby Portis | 21 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 6-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nikola Jovic | 18 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ryan Conwell | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dru Smith | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Cavaliers: Mitchell 31 · Harden 30 · Watson 24 · Allen 24 · Thomas 24 · Tyson 22 · Hezonja 20 · Proctor 20 (projected minutes). Out: Evan Mobley, Sam Merrill
Heat: Mitchell 34 · Adebayo 32 · Antetokounmpo 31 · Wiggins 26 · Portis 23 · Hardaway 18 · Richards 16 · Conwell 14 (projected minutes). Out: Pelle Larsson, Klay Thompson
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Heat turn it over on 14% of possessions (7th-fewest). Cavaliers force turnovers on 14% (6th-fewest).
From three. Cavaliers take 44% of their shots from deep (8th-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.08 points a shot. Heat give up 43% of shots from three (8th-most).
In transition. Cavaliers get out in transition 20th of 30 in the NBA. Heat allow 5th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in scoring in 46% of sims.
Allen posts a double-double in 20%.
Mitchell hits 5+ threes in 12%.
Antetokounmpo leads the Heat in scoring in 67% of sims.
Antetokounmpo posts a double-double in 60%.
What swings it
When Heat hit 14+ threes (36% of sims), they win 63%, up from 47%.
When Cavaliers hit 17+ threes (32% of sims), they win 75%, up from 53%.
When Cavaliers commit fewer turnovers than Heat (37% of sims), they win 68%, up from 53%.
Reality check
Cavaliers score 116.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.3 against this defense.
Heat score 117.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.8 against this defense.
Mitchell: 22.8 pts · 5 reb · 5.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.8 · 4.3 · 5.5.
Harden: 16.7 pts · 4.6 reb · 5.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.6 · 3.9 · 5.2.
Antetokounmpo: 28 pts · 12.8 reb · 5.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 27.6 · 11.2 · 4.6.
Adebayo: 18.4 pts · 8.5 reb · 3.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17 · 7.6 · 3.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Cavaliers win 53% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (MIA −2.5): the Heat cover in 42%.
Total 235.5: over in 45%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- James Harden20+ pts + ast54%of sims91Our Rating76%books imply
- Donovan Mitchell15+ pts77%of sims90Our Rating95%books imply
- Donovan Mitchell25+ pts + reb + ast72%of sims90Our Rating93%books imply
- James Harden5+ ast59%of sims89Our Rating82%books imply
- James Harden25+ pts + reb + ast48%of sims89Our Rating73%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.