Bulls vs Timberwolves prediction

How it played out: quarter by quarter

Top scorers: Norman Powell 28, LaMelo Ball 24, Terrence Shannon Jr. 19, Jaden McDaniels 19, Matas Buzelis 18, Nic Claxton 15

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Projected pace: 105 possessions each (league 102).

   Bulls are on the second night of a back-to-back.

2. Who's in the sim

   Bulls: Williams 27 · Giddey 27 · Powell 25 · Buzelis 25 · Miller 22 · Okoro 22 · Smith 22 · Claxton 20 (projected minutes). Out: Caleb Wilson

   Timberwolves: McDaniels 31 · Dosunmu 29 · Kuminga 28 · Gobert 28 · Shannon 26 · Ball 26 · Lyles 20 · Williams 20 (projected minutes). Out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo

3. What's mapped in

   • Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
   • Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
   • Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
   • Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
   • Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.

4. What decides it

   At the rim. Bulls finish 65% at the basket (5th-worst; 34% of their shots). Timberwolves allow 65% there (5th-lowest).

   Second chances. Timberwolves grab 28% of their misses (5th-most). Bulls let opponents get 28% (5th-most).

   Ball security. Bulls turn it over on 15% of possessions (6th-most). Timberwolves force turnovers on 15% (7th-most).

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Powell leads the Bulls in scoring in 38% of sims.

   Giddey posts a double-double in 21%.

   Dosunmu leads the Timberwolves in scoring in 23% of sims.

   Gobert posts a double-double in 33%.

   Ball hits 5+ threes in 25%.

6. What swings it

   When Bulls hit 14+ threes (36% of sims), they win 45%, up from 29%.

   When Bulls commit fewer turnovers than Timberwolves (31% of sims), they win 45%, up from 29%.

   When Timberwolves hit 15+ threes (32% of sims), they win 86%, up from 71%.

7. Reality check

   Bulls score 115.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.3 against this defense.

   Timberwolves score 121.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 120.7 against this defense.

   Powell: 19.4 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.6 · 2.5 · 1.

   Buzelis: 13.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 2.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 12.8 · 4.6 · 1.9.

   Ball: 18.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.9 · 3 · 6.2.

   Dosunmu: 18.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.8 · 4.3 · 4.1.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Timberwolves win 71% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (MIN −15.5): the Timberwolves cover in 36%.

   Total 235.5: over in 42%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • LaMelo Ball15+ pts + ast
     87%of sims
     94Our Rating
   • LaMelo Ball20+ pts + reb + ast
     78%of sims
     92Our Rating
   • LaMelo Ball15+ pts + reb
     75%of sims
     91Our Rating
   • Rudy Gobert15+ pts + reb
     78%of sims
     89Our Rating
     89%books imply
   • LaMelo Ball2+ threes
     82%of sims
     88Our Rating
     90%books imply