Bulls vs Knicks prediction
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks, Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · Madison Square Garden. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Knicks 122, Bulls 106.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Knicks won 64% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Matas Buzelis Bulls 18 pts · 9 reb · 4 ast
- Norman Powell Bulls 17 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast
- Jalen Brunson Knicks 28 pts · 5 reb · 8 ast
- Karl-Anthony Towns Knicks 26 pts · 7 reb · 6 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 20 | 29 | 33 | 24 | 106 |
| NY | 27 | 24 | 37 | 34 | 122 |
Top scorers: Jalen Brunson 28, Karl-Anthony Towns 26, Matas Buzelis 18, Norman Powell 17, Landry Shamet 17, Leonard Miller 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson | 35 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 5-14 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Matas Buzelis | 31 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 7-16 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Giddey | 27 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Norman Powell | 24 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 6-9 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Smith | 24 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Leonard Miller | 28 | 16 | 9 | 0 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Tre Jones | 28 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Patrick Williams | 21 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Isaac Okoro | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Collins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 35 | 28 | 5 | 8 | 9-21 | 2-8 | 8-8 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| OG Anunoby | 33 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 33 | 26 | 7 | 6 | 9-15 | 3-6 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Mikal Bridges | 31 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Hart | 28 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Landry Shamet | 28 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 5-8 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Andre Drummond | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles McBride | 13 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Clarkson | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Kolek | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Bulls: Wilson 32 · Miller 31 · Williams 29 · Giddey 28 · Powell 26 · Buzelis 26 · Smith 23 · Jones 21 (projected minutes). Out: Nic Claxton
Knicks: Brunson 33 · Anunoby 31 · Towns 30 · Hart 29 · Bridges 28 · Shamet 26 · McBride 20 · Drummond 18 (projected minutes). Out: Jose Alvarado
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Bulls finish 64% at the basket (2nd-worst; 34% of their shots). Knicks allow 65% there (6th-lowest).
From three. Bulls take 45% of their shots from deep (8th-most in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.02 points a shot. Knicks give up 45% of shots from three (3rd-most).
Ball security. Knicks turn it over on 14% of possessions (10th-fewest). Bulls force turnovers on 14% (3rd-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wilson leads the Bulls in scoring in 37% of sims.
Giddey posts a double-double in 31%.
Wilson hits 5+ threes in 12%.
Brunson leads the Knicks in scoring in 55% of sims.
Towns posts a double-double in 62%.
Brunson hits 5+ threes in 13%.
What swings it
When Bulls hit 16+ threes (31% of sims), they win 56%, up from 36%.
When Knicks hit 17+ threes (30% of sims), they win 83%, up from 64%.
When Bulls commit fewer turnovers than Knicks (39% of sims), they win 50%, up from 36%.
Reality check
Bulls score 115.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.3 against this defense.
Knicks score 108.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 118.7 against this defense.
Wilson: 21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast over his last 6. In the sims: 19.6 · 6 · 2.
Powell: 18.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.8 · 2.4 · 1.5.
Brunson: 24.8 pts · 3 reb · 6.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 25.4 · 2.9 · 6.2.
Towns: 20.6 pts · 12.7 reb · 4.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.5 · 12 · 3.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Knicks win 64% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.