Bulls vs Celtics prediction
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics, Monday, October 26, 2026 · TD Garden. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Celtics 120, Bulls 115.
Final: BOS 134–99. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Celtics 120, Bulls 115 (the Celtics won 61% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Celtics won 61% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Matas Buzelis Bulls 20 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Caleb Wilson Bulls 19 pts · 9 reb · 1 ast
- Payton Pritchard Celtics 26 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast
- Jayson Tatum Celtics 21 pts · 11 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 25 | 25 | 27 | 38 | 115 |
| BOS | 29 | 24 | 28 | 39 | 120 |
Top scorers: Payton Pritchard 26, Paul George 21, Jayson Tatum 21, Matas Buzelis 20, Caleb Wilson 19, Josh Giddey 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson | 44 | 19 | 9 | 1 | 7-19 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Giddey | 33 | 17 | 8 | 15 | 7-19 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Norman Powell | 27 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 3-10 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Leonard Miller | 27 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Matas Buzelis | 25 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 7-11 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaac Okoro | 25 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Smith | 25 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 5-15 | 3-10 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre Jones | 19 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Collins | 15 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick White | 34 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jayson Tatum | 32 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6-17 | 1-8 | 8-9 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Neemias Queta | 30 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Paul George | 29 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 8-17 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Sam Hauser | 23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Pritchard | 29 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 9-17 | 6-11 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Luka Garza | 24 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 5-11 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 23 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Bulls: Wilson 34 · Giddey 31 · Buzelis 30 · Powell 28 · Miller 28 · Okoro 25 · Jones 25 · Smith 23 (projected minutes). Out: Patrick Williams, Nic Claxton
Celtics: Tatum 35 · White 33 · George 31 · Pritchard 31 · Queta 26 · Hauser 26 · Scheierman 23 · Robinson 18 (projected minutes). Out: Devin Carter
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Celtics turn it over on 14% of possessions (3rd-fewest). Bulls force turnovers on 14% (3rd-fewest).
At the rim. Bulls finish 64% at the basket (2nd-worst; 35% of their shots). Celtics allow 66% there (7th-lowest).
From three. Bulls take 44% of their shots from deep (8th-most in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.02 points a shot. Celtics give up 45% of shots from three (the most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wilson leads the Bulls in scoring in 48% of sims.
Giddey posts a double-double in 45%.
Wilson hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring in 47% of sims.
Tatum posts a double-double in 39%.
George hits 5+ threes in 21%.
What swings it
When Bulls hit 15+ threes (37% of sims), they win 57%, up from 39%.
When Celtics hit 17+ threes (37% of sims), they win 80%, up from 61%.
When Bulls commit fewer turnovers than Celtics (33% of sims), they win 56%, up from 39%.
Reality check
Bulls score 118.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.9 against this defense.
Celtics score 116.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.9 against this defense.
Wilson: 22.3 pts · 8 reb · 1.3 ast over his last 3. In the sims: 21.8 · 7 · 1.
Powell: 18 pts · 3 reb · 1.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.7 · 2.7 · 1.6.
Tatum: 22.8 pts · 10.2 reb · 6.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.7 · 8.6 · 5.2.
George: 21.9 pts · 5.8 reb · 3.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20 · 5 · 2.2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Celtics win 61% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.