Bulls vs Cavaliers prediction
Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers, Monday, November 16, 2026 · Rocket Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Cavaliers 120, Bulls 116.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Cavaliers won 64% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Norman Powell Bulls 20 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Josh Giddey Bulls 16 pts · 8 reb · 6 ast
- Evan Mobley Cavaliers 25 pts · 8 reb · 2 ast
- James Harden Cavaliers 20 pts · 3 reb · 8 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 21 | 20 | 40 | 35 | 116 |
| CLE | 24 | 30 | 36 | 30 | 120 |
Top scorers: Evan Mobley 25, Norman Powell 20, James Harden 20, Donovan Mitchell 17, Josh Giddey 16, Matas Buzelis 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 33 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 6-15 | 3-9 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Giddey | 25 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 6-13 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Matas Buzelis | 23 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 5-11 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Nic Claxton | 22 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Jalen Smith | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Williams | 26 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaac Okoro | 26 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 6-8 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Leonard Miller | 24 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 18 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tre Jones | 15 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Buddy Hield | 14 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Mobley | 33 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 10-16 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 31 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 6-11 | 1-5 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| James Harden | 28 | 20 | 3 | 8 | 5-13 | 2-4 | 8-8 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Jarrett Allen | 23 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Peyton Watson | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Mario Hezonja | 30 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jaylon Tyson | 27 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Meleek Thomas | 24 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 24 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Thomas Bryant | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 105 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Bulls: Williams 27 · Giddey 27 · Powell 26 · Buzelis 25 · Okoro 23 · Smith 22 · Miller 21 · Claxton 20 (projected minutes). Out: Caleb Wilson
Cavaliers: Harden 31 · Mitchell 31 · Mobley 30 · Thomas 26 · Tyson 25 · Watson 25 · Allen 25 · Proctor 22 (projected minutes). Out: Sam Merrill
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Bulls finish 65% at the basket (2nd-worst; 34% of their shots). Cavaliers allow 64% there (5th-lowest).
Ball security. Cavaliers turn it over on 13% of possessions (5th-fewest). Bulls force turnovers on 13% (5th-fewest).
From three. Bulls take 45% of their shots from deep (7th-most in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Cavaliers give up 43% of shots from three (11th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Powell leads the Bulls in scoring in 41% of sims.
Giddey posts a double-double in 24%.
Powell hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in scoring in 38% of sims.
Allen posts a double-double in 23%.
Mitchell hits 5+ threes in 12%.
What swings it
When Bulls hit 16+ threes (31% of sims), they win 57%, up from 36%.
When Cavaliers hit 16+ threes (34% of sims), they win 81%, up from 64%.
When Bulls commit fewer turnovers than Cavaliers (34% of sims), they win 52%, up from 36%.
Reality check
Bulls score 115 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.3 against this defense.
Cavaliers score 118.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 121.6 against this defense.
Powell: 20.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.8 · 2.7 · 1.3.
Buzelis: 13.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13 · 4.7 · 2.
Mitchell: 22.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 5.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.5 · 4.1 · 5.9.
Harden: 17 pts · 4.8 reb · 5.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.2 · 4.3 · 5.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Cavaliers win 64% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Nic Claxton4+ reb77%of sims91Our Rating
- James Harden20+ pts + ast60%of sims91Our Rating
- Donovan Mitchell15+ pts76%of sims90Our Rating
- Donovan Mitchell25+ pts + reb + ast72%of sims90Our Rating
- Evan Mobley10+ pts81%of sims90Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.