Bucks vs Magic prediction
Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic, Friday, November 13, 2026 · Kia Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Magic 114, Bucks 110.
Final: ORL 107–99. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Magic 114, Bucks 110 (the Magic won 59% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Magic won 59% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Tyler Herro Bucks 19 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. Bucks 16 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast
- Franz Wagner Magic 24 pts · 5 reb · 2 ast
- Jalen Suggs Magic 21 pts · 5 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 25 | 23 | 33 | 29 | 110 |
| ORL | 24 | 34 | 25 | 31 | 114 |
Top scorers: Franz Wagner 24, Jalen Suggs 21, Tristan da Silva 20, Tyler Herro 19, Jaime Jaquez Jr. 16, Kyle Kuzma 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Turner | 32 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Herro | 28 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 6-11 | 1-5 | 6-8 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 26 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 4-6 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 24 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Ryan Rollins | 22 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 5-16 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ousmane Dieng | 26 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cormac Ryan | 25 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 4-10 | 1-7 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Brayden Burries | 22 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Nance | 19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kam Jones | 17 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Suggs | 34 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 6-15 | 3-7 | 6-6 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Franz Wagner | 32 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 10-17 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Anthony Black | 29 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 27 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Desmond Bane | 27 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tristan da Silva | 35 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 8-11 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jase Richardson | 24 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jamal Cain | 23 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jevon Carter | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Bucks: Herro 29 · Ryan 28 · Jaquez 26 · Kuzma 26 · Turner 26 · Nance 25 · Jones 23 · Rollins 22 (projected minutes)
Magic: Wagner 34 · da Silva 32 · Carter 31 · Bane 30 · Suggs 29 · Black 26 · Cain 23 · Richardson 20 (projected minutes). Out: Paolo Banchero
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Bucks grab 27% of their misses (16th of 30). Magic let opponents get 26% (4th-fewest).
Ball security. Bucks turn it over on 15% of possessions (5th-most). Magic force turnovers on 14% (16th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Herro leads the Bucks in scoring in 43% of sims.
Herro hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Wagner leads the Magic in scoring in 51% of sims.
Carter posts a double-double in 39%.
da Silva hits 5+ threes in 13%.
What swings it
When Bucks hit 15+ threes (38% of sims), they win 58%, up from 41%.
When Magic hit 16+ threes (33% of sims), they win 78%, up from 59%.
When Bucks commit fewer turnovers than Magic (35% of sims), they win 58%, up from 41%.
Reality check
Bucks score 108.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 109.4 against this defense.
Magic score 112.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.4 against this defense.
Herro: 20.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.1 · 4.8 · 3.4.
Jaquez: 16.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.6 · 5.5 · 2.3.
Wagner: 23.2 pts · 6.3 reb · 7.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.5 · 6.9 · 6.
Bane: 15.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.9 · 3.9 · 3.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Magic win 59% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (ORL −9.5): the Magic cover in 37%.
Total 224.5: over in 46%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Jalen Suggs5+ reb + ast94%of sims90Our Rating81%books imply
- Ryan Rollins1+ threes78%of sims88Our Rating81%books imply
- Wendell Carter Jr.5+ reb92%of sims88Our Rating95%books imply
- Desmond Bane1+ threes87%of sims88Our Rating
- Tyler Herro1+ threes90%of sims87Our Rating96%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.