Bucks vs Knicks prediction
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks, Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · Madison Square Garden. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Knicks 120, Bucks 107.
Final: NY 117–85. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Knicks 120, Bucks 107 (the Knicks won 71% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Knicks won 71% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Brayden Burries Bucks 23 pts · 10 reb · 1 ast
- Ryan Rollins Bucks 16 pts · 2 reb · 6 ast
- Karl-Anthony Towns Knicks 25 pts · 11 reb · 5 ast
- Jalen Brunson Knicks 23 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 28 | 25 | 21 | 33 | 107 |
| NY | 33 | 32 | 33 | 22 | 120 |
Top scorers: Karl-Anthony Towns 25, Brayden Burries 23, Jalen Brunson 23, Ryan Rollins 16, Kel'el Ware 14, OG Anunoby 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Nance | 37 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 5-8 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 28 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Myles Turner | 24 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 22 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan Rollins | 21 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 6-11 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| AJ Green | 32 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brayden Burries | 26 | 23 | 10 | 1 | 7-13 | 3-8 | 6-8 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Kel'el Ware | 25 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cormac Ryan | 18 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ousmane Dieng | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 32 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 7-16 | 2-8 | 7-8 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 30 | 25 | 11 | 5 | 8-12 | 2-3 | 7-8 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| OG Anunoby | 29 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 5-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mikal Bridges | 25 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4-11 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Landry Shamet | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Kolek | 22 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andre Drummond | 18 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles McBride | 17 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jose Alvarado | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Clarkson | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Diawara | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalton Knecht | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 99 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Bucks: Jaquez 27 · Ryan 26 · Nance 26 · Turner 25 · Kuzma 25 · Green 25 · Rollins 23 · Burries 23 (projected minutes). Out: Tyler Herro
Knicks: Brunson 32 · Anunoby 30 · Towns 29 · Shamet 26 · Bridges 25 · McBride 19 · Drummond 18 · Alvarado 16 (projected minutes). Out: Josh Hart
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Bucks take 46% of their shots from deep (5th-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.09 points a shot. Knicks give up 45% of shots from three (2nd-most).
Second chances. Knicks grab 30% of their misses (3rd-most). Bucks let opponents get 28% (5th-most).
Ball security. Knicks turn it over on 14% of possessions (8th-fewest). Bucks force turnovers on 13% (the fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Jaquez leads the Bucks in scoring in 21% of sims.
Ware posts a double-double in 15%.
Green hits 5+ threes in 15%.
Brunson leads the Knicks in scoring in 59% of sims.
Towns posts a double-double in 64%.
Brunson hits 5+ threes in 13%.
What swings it
When Bucks hit 17+ threes (31% of sims), they win 50%, up from 29%.
When Knicks hit 17+ threes (35% of sims), they win 86%, up from 71%.
When Bucks commit fewer turnovers than Knicks (33% of sims), they win 44%, up from 29%.
Reality check
Bucks score 109.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 106.9 against this defense.
Knicks score 112.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.1 against this defense.
Jaquez: 16.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.5 · 4.5 · 3.1.
Ryan: 14.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.7 ast over his last 11. In the sims: 12.4 · 2.4 · 1.3.
Brunson: 26.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 24.9 · 2.8 · 5.5.
Towns: 20.6 pts · 13 reb · 3.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.8 · 12.6 · 3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Knicks win 71% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.