Bucks vs Celtics prediction
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics, Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · TD Garden. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Celtics 121, Bucks 102.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Celtics won 67% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Ryan Rollins Bucks 19 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast
- Tyler Herro Bucks 14 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Jayson Tatum Celtics 28 pts · 8 reb · 7 ast
- Paul George Celtics 20 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 33 | 17 | 26 | 26 | 102 |
| BOS | 26 | 24 | 44 | 27 | 121 |
Top scorers: Jayson Tatum 28, Paul George 20, Neemias Queta 19, Ryan Rollins 19, Payton Pritchard 18, Kel'el Ware 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Rollins | 34 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 7-15 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Myles Turner | 28 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Tyler Herro | 27 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 5-15 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ousmane Dieng | 19 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 16 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cormac Ryan | 43 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5-11 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Kel'el Ware | 29 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 5-11 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 24 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 6-12 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| AJ Green | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jericho Sims | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 38 | 28 | 8 | 7 | 9-18 | 4-9 | 6-6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Paul George | 37 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 7-18 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Derrick White | 25 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Neemias Queta | 22 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Walsh | 12 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Pritchard | 30 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 6-16 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Luka Garza | 29 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sam Hauser | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 17 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Conley | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Bucks: Herro 30 · Ryan 30 · Jaquez 27 · Rollins 27 · Ware 26 · Green 25 · Turner 24 · Kuzma 24 (projected minutes)
Celtics: Pritchard 33 · Tatum 33 · White 29 · George 29 · Scheierman 24 · Queta 22 · Hauser 22 · Garza 18 (projected minutes). Out: Devin Carter, Mitchell Robinson
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Celtics take 46% of their shots from deep (4th-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.07 points a shot. Bucks give up 45% of shots from three (2nd-most).
Ball security. Celtics turn it over on 14% of possessions (5th-fewest). Bucks force turnovers on 13% (the fewest).
At the rim. Celtics finish 69% at the basket (2nd-best; 23% of their shots). Bucks allow 69% there (5th-highest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Herro leads the Bucks in scoring in 28% of sims.
Ware posts a double-double in 28%.
Green hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring in 59% of sims.
Tatum posts a double-double in 34%.
George hits 5+ threes in 15%.
What swings it
When Bucks hit 16+ threes (39% of sims), they win 51%, up from 33%.
When Celtics hit 18+ threes (32% of sims), they win 86%, up from 67%.
When Bucks commit fewer turnovers than Celtics (28% of sims), they win 50%, up from 33%.
Reality check
Bucks score 112.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 109.4 against this defense.
Celtics score 119.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.8 against this defense.
Herro: 20.4 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17 · 4.4 · 3.5.
Jaquez: 18.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.8 · 5.4 · 3.3.
Tatum: 26.7 pts · 8.4 reb · 7.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 25.9 · 8.1 · 5.2.
George: 18.5 pts · 5.4 reb · 4.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.1 · 5.3 · 2.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Celtics win 67% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.