76ers vs Pistons prediction
Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons, Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · Little Caesars Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pistons 115, 76ers 111.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pistons won 68% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Tyrese Maxey 76ers 22 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
- LeBron James 76ers 19 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
- Cade Cunningham Pistons 20 pts · 9 reb · 10 ast
- Taurean Prince Pistons 18 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 17 | 41 | 25 | 28 | 111 |
| DET | 33 | 27 | 25 | 30 | 115 |
Top scorers: Tyrese Maxey 22, Cade Cunningham 20, LeBron James 19, Taurean Prince 18, Joel Embiid 16, Anfernee Simons 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VJ Edgecombe | 40 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jaylen Brown | 37 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 4-13 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Tyrese Maxey | 34 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 8-16 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Joel Embiid | 31 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| LeBron James | 29 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 7-13 | 1-5 | 4-6 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Rayan Rupert | 31 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 5-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Anfernee Simons | 28 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 7-14 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Wade | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Collins | 29 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Cade Cunningham | 28 | 20 | 9 | 10 | 9-25 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Duncan Robinson | 28 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 1-9 | 0-5 | 6-8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ausar Thompson | 21 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 6-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Harkless | 17 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Taurean Prince | 35 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 7-13 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Paul Reed | 27 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Huerter | 26 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Daniss Jenkins | 20 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Holland II | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
76ers: Simons 37 · Maxey 34 · Brown 34 · Edgecombe 33 · Embiid 32 · Rupert 30 · James 30 · Wade 10 (projected minutes). Out: Dominick Barlow
Pistons: Jenkins 28 · Prince 28 · Cunningham 27 · Robinson 26 · Harkless 26 · Thompson 25 · Huerter 24 · Collins 24 (projected minutes). Out: Jalen Duren, Isaiah Joe
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. 76ers finish 65% at the basket (3rd-worst; 32% of their shots). Pistons allow 64% there (4th-lowest) and block shots 23% more often than average.
Second chances. Pistons grab 28% of their misses (6th-most). 76ers let opponents get 28% (4th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Maxey leads the 76ers in scoring in 32% of sims.
Embiid posts a double-double in 33%.
Cunningham leads the Pistons in scoring in 33% of sims.
Collins posts a double-double in 21%.
Robinson hits 5+ threes in 17%.
What swings it
When 76ers hit 13+ threes (27% of sims), they win 50%, up from 32%.
When Pistons hit 15+ threes (31% of sims), they win 85%, up from 68%.
When Pistons commit fewer turnovers than 76ers (39% of sims), they win 81%, up from 68%.
Reality check
76ers score 111.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 105.5 against this defense.
Pistons score 115.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.3 against this defense.
Maxey: 26.8 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.8 · 3.7 · 3.7.
Brown: 25.1 pts · 5.9 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.9 · 5.6 · 2.7.
Cunningham: 18.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 8.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.6 · 5.3 · 6.4.
Robinson: 16.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.1 · 2.2 · 2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Pistons win 68% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.