76ers vs Pacers prediction
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers, Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · Gainbridge Fieldhouse. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: 76ers 115, Pacers 109.
Final: PHI 114–109. Before the game the most plausible outcome was 76ers 115, Pacers 109 (the 76ers won 51% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the 76ers won 51% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jaylen Brown 76ers 26 pts · 8 reb · 3 ast
- LeBron James 76ers 24 pts · 8 reb · 2 ast
- Pascal Siakam Pacers 31 pts · 8 reb · 4 ast
- Quenton Jackson Pacers 14 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 29 | 27 | 30 | 29 | 115 |
| IND | 22 | 36 | 25 | 26 | 109 |
Top scorers: Pascal Siakam 31, Jaylen Brown 26, LeBron James 24, VJ Edgecombe 16, Tyrese Maxey 15, Quenton Jackson 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 39 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 5-11 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylen Brown | 39 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 9-22 | 2-7 | 6-8 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| LeBron James | 37 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 9-15 | 2-5 | 4-7 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Joel Embiid | 34 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 3-13 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| VJ Edgecombe | 30 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 7-15 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Anfernee Simons | 35 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 5-14 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayan Rupert | 17 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Dean Wade | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 41 | 31 | 8 | 4 | 14-26 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 40 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4-11 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 36 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 4-11 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Quenton Jackson | 22 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 6-13 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jarace Walker | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 30 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 5-10 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Huff | 20 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 5-10 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kobe Brown | 17 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Obi Toppin | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen Slawson | 11 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
76ers: Maxey 36 · Brown 36 · Edgecombe 35 · Embiid 34 · Rupert 32 · James 32 · Simons 26 · Wade 9 (projected minutes). Out: Dominick Barlow
Pacers: Siakam 31 · Nembhard 31 · Nesmith 28 · Oubre 26 · Walker 26 · Jackson 23 · Brown 23 · Huff 20 (projected minutes). Out: Tyrese Haliburton, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. 76ers turn it over on 14% of possessions (the fewest). Pacers force turnovers on 14% (3rd-fewest).
From three. 76ers take 40% of their shots from deep (7th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Pacers give up 39% of shots from three (the fewest).
At the rim. 76ers finish 64% at the basket (3rd-worst; 32% of their shots). Pacers allow 66% there (20th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Brown leads the 76ers in scoring in 31% of sims.
Embiid posts a double-double in 39%.
Siakam leads the Pacers in scoring in 52% of sims.
Siakam posts a double-double in 22%.
What swings it
When Pacers hit 16+ threes (29% of sims), they win 72%, up from 49%.
When 76ers hit 13+ threes (28% of sims), they win 71%, up from 51%.
When Pacers commit fewer turnovers than 76ers (30% of sims), they win 67%, up from 49%.
Reality check
76ers score 114.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114 against this defense.
Pacers score 118.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.4 against this defense.
Embiid: 27.4 pts · 8.8 reb · 4.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.8 · 8.9 · 3.
Brown: 27.1 pts · 6 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.6 · 6 · 3.3.
Siakam: 23.6 pts · 6.8 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22 · 7.1 · 3.4.
Nesmith: 16.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.1 · 2.9 · 1.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The 76ers win 51% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.