76ers vs Nets prediction
Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets, Monday, November 16, 2026 · Barclays Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: 76ers 121, Nets 113.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the 76ers won 58% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Tyrese Maxey 76ers 37 pts · 7 reb · 5 ast
- Jaylen Brown 76ers 22 pts · 5 reb · 5 ast
- Michael Porter Jr. Nets 23 pts · 10 reb · 1 ast
- Julius Randle Nets 18 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 23 | 26 | 39 | 33 | 121 |
| BKN | 32 | 30 | 27 | 24 | 113 |
Top scorers: Tyrese Maxey 37, Michael Porter Jr. 23, Jaylen Brown 22, Rayan Rupert 21, Julius Randle 18, Danny Wolf 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 37 | 37 | 7 | 5 | 12-25 | 5-10 | 8-8 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| VJ Edgecombe | 35 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4-7 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Jaylen Brown | 33 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 8-19 | 2-6 | 4-5 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| LeBron James | 27 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Rayan Rupert | 26 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 8-12 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Dean Wade | 28 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 24 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Simons | 21 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Caleb Love | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 34 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 5-11 | 0-3 | 8-8 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 30 | 23 | 10 | 1 | 9-16 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Egor Demin | 29 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Wolf | 28 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 7-10 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 18 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Ben Saraf | 34 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 24 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Drake Powell | 17 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Traore | 15 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Keon Ellis | 12 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 102).
76ers are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
76ers: Maxey 34 · Brown 33 · Edgecombe 32 · James 30 · Rupert 26 · Caldwell-Pope 26 · Simons 25 · Wade 24 (projected minutes). Out: Joel Embiid, Dominick Barlow, Adem Bona
Nets: Randle 31 · Porter 30 · Saraf 28 · Brown 26 · Ellis 24 · Demin 24 · Sharpe 23 · Wolf 22 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. 76ers grab 25% of their misses (4th-fewest). Nets let opponents get 26% (5th-fewest).
Ball security. Nets turn it over on 15% of possessions (2nd-most). 76ers force turnovers on 14% (19th of 30).
In transition. 76ers get out in transition 8th-most in the NBA. Nets allow 7th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Maxey leads the 76ers in scoring in 49% of sims.
Brown posts a double-double in 23%.
Maxey hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Porter leads the Nets in scoring in 34% of sims.
Porter posts a double-double in 24%.
Porter hits 5+ threes in 14%.
What swings it
When Nets hit 15+ threes (32% of sims), they win 63%, up from 42%.
When Nets commit fewer turnovers than 76ers (29% of sims), they win 62%, up from 42%.
When 76ers hit 14+ threes (37% of sims), they win 74%, up from 58%.
Reality check
76ers score 111.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.2 against this defense.
Nets score 108.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 108 against this defense.
Maxey: 26.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 24.6 · 3.5 · 4.5.
Brown: 21.2 pts · 6.5 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.3 · 7.1 · 2.9.
Porter: 21.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.5 · 7.2 · 1.2.
Randle: 19.9 pts · 6.3 reb · 5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.1 · 6.6 · 3.8.
The 10,000 vs the market
The 76ers win 58% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- LeBron James10+ pts88%of sims92Our Rating
- Julius Randle15+ pts + ast82%of sims90Our Rating
- Anfernee Simons1+ threes82%of sims88Our Rating
- Michael Porter Jr.20+ pts + reb + ast76%of sims87Our Rating
- LeBron James25+ pts + reb + ast67%of sims87Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.