76ers vs Cavaliers prediction
Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers, Friday, November 6, 2026 · Rocket Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Cavaliers 119, 76ers 111.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Cavaliers won 61% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Joel Embiid 76ers 24 pts · 11 reb · 2 ast
- Jaylen Brown 76ers 22 pts · 8 reb · 3 ast
- Donovan Mitchell Cavaliers 22 pts · 9 reb · 7 ast
- Jarrett Allen Cavaliers 16 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 29 | 21 | 24 | 37 | 111 |
| CLE | 32 | 31 | 31 | 25 | 119 |
Top scorers: Joel Embiid 24, Donovan Mitchell 22, Jaylen Brown 22, LeBron James 18, Jarrett Allen 16, James Harden 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | 38 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 9-19 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrese Maxey | 36 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| VJ Edgecombe | 29 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 6-19 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Joel Embiid | 27 | 24 | 11 | 2 | 8-20 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| LeBron James | 26 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 8-10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Anfernee Simons | 40 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 5-8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayan Rupert | 30 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Dean Wade | 14 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 39 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 6-12 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 33 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 9-16 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Evan Mobley | 25 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 3-7 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jarrett Allen | 21 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Meleek Thomas | 20 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 6-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Craig Porter Jr. | 30 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Sam Merrill | 28 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 3-11 | 1-8 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mario Hezonja | 22 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Thomas Bryant | 13 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tristan Enaruna | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
76ers: Simons 34 · Maxey 34 · Brown 34 · Edgecombe 33 · Embiid 32 · James 30 · Rupert 28 · Wade 15 (projected minutes). Out: Dominick Barlow
Cavaliers: Harden 31 · Mitchell 30 · Mobley 30 · Merrill 27 · Allen 24 · Thomas 23 · Hezonja 21 · Proctor 17 (projected minutes). Out: Peyton Watson, Jaylon Tyson
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. 76ers finish 65% at the basket (3rd-worst; 32% of their shots). Cavaliers allow 64% there (4th-lowest).
Ball security. 76ers turn it over on 13% of possessions (3rd-fewest). Cavaliers force turnovers on 14% (4th-fewest).
Second chances. 76ers grab 25% of their misses (3rd-fewest). Cavaliers let opponents get 27% (8th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Maxey leads the 76ers in scoring in 37% of sims.
Embiid posts a double-double in 38%.
Maxey hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in scoring in 37% of sims.
Mobley posts a double-double in 26%.
Mitchell hits 5+ threes in 10%.
What swings it
When 76ers hit 13+ threes (38% of sims), they win 55%, up from 39%.
When Cavaliers hit 16+ threes (31% of sims), they win 81%, up from 61%.
When Cavaliers commit fewer turnovers than 76ers (33% of sims), they win 78%, up from 61%.
Reality check
76ers score 109.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.4 against this defense.
Cavaliers score 119.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.1 against this defense.
Maxey: 27.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.9 · 3.6 · 4.6.
Brown: 23.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.9 · 6 · 2.6.
Mitchell: 23.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.7 · 4.4 · 5.3.
Harden: 18.4 pts · 4.4 reb · 5.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.5 · 3.8 · 5.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Cavaliers win 61% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.