76ers vs Bulls prediction
Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls, Sunday, November 8, 2026 · United Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: 76ers 114, Bulls 106.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the 76ers won 55% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Tyrese Maxey 76ers 30 pts · 7 reb · 6 ast
- Joel Embiid 76ers 20 pts · 15 reb · 4 ast
- Caleb Wilson Bulls 21 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
- Patrick Williams Bulls 16 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 28 | 27 | 30 | 29 | 114 |
| CHI | 26 | 28 | 30 | 22 | 106 |
Top scorers: Tyrese Maxey 30, Caleb Wilson 21, Joel Embiid 20, LeBron James 17, Patrick Williams 16, VJ Edgecombe 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 40 | 30 | 7 | 6 | 10-18 | 6-8 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jaylen Brown | 36 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| LeBron James | 36 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6-9 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| VJ Edgecombe | 33 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 6-15 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Joel Embiid | 33 | 20 | 15 | 4 | 6-15 | 1-6 | 7-8 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Anfernee Simons | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Rayan Rupert | 21 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Wade | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 29 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3-11 | 1-5 | 3-6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Giddey | 28 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Caleb Wilson | 27 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 6-14 | 3-10 | 6-8 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Matas Buzelis | 23 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Jalen Smith | 23 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 6-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Williams | 33 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 6-11 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tre Jones | 25 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leonard Miller | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 20 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Isaac Okoro | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 105 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
76ers: Maxey 34 · Brown 34 · Simons 33 · Edgecombe 33 · Embiid 32 · James 31 · Rupert 29 · Wade 16 (projected minutes). Out: Dominick Barlow, Adem Bona
Bulls: Wilson 31 · Giddey 27 · Williams 26 · Powell 25 · Miller 25 · Buzelis 24 · Jones 22 · Okoro 22 (projected minutes). Out: Nic Claxton
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. 76ers turn it over on 13% of possessions (3rd-fewest). Bulls force turnovers on 14% (3rd-fewest).
In transition. Bulls get out in transition 4th-most in the NBA. 76ers allow 5th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
At the rim. 76ers finish 65% at the basket (4th-worst; 31% of their shots). Bulls allow 66% there (9th-lowest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Maxey leads the 76ers in scoring in 38% of sims.
Embiid posts a double-double in 43%.
Maxey hits 5+ threes in 12%.
Wilson leads the Bulls in scoring in 35% of sims.
Giddey posts a double-double in 25%.
Wilson hits 5+ threes in 11%.
What swings it
When Bulls hit 15+ threes (36% of sims), they win 64%, up from 45%.
When Bulls commit fewer turnovers than 76ers (28% of sims), they win 65%, up from 45%.
When 76ers hit 14+ threes (30% of sims), they win 73%, up from 55%.
Reality check
76ers score 108.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.1 against this defense.
Bulls score 113.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.1 against this defense.
Maxey: 26.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.1 · 3.8 · 4.7.
Brown: 23.2 pts · 6.5 reb · 3.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.6 · 6.5 · 2.8.
Wilson: 19.5 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.4 ast over his last 8. In the sims: 18.7 · 6.7 · 1.9.
Powell: 17.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.2 · 2.4 · 1.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The 76ers win 55% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (PHI −9.5): the 76ers cover in 33%.
Total 238.5: over in 33%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.