Vikings vs Packers prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stMIN Cousins to Jefferson, 7-yd TD 7–0
2. 1stGB Johnson 1-yd TD run 7–7
3. 2ndGB Safety 14–9
4. 2ndGB 42-yd field goal 14–12
5. 2ndMIN 55-yd field goal 17–12
6. 3rdGB 47-yd field goal 17–15
7. 3rdGB Love to Golden, 16-yd TD 17–22
8. 3rdMIN 45-yd field goal 20–22

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Vikings start Kirk Cousins, who took 0% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.

   Vikings blitz on 56% of dropbacks (the most in the NFL).

   Vikings use play action on 27% of dropbacks (3rd-most).

2. Who's in the sim

   Vikings: QB Cousins · Jefferson 37% of targets · Addison 24% of targets · Jones 12% of targets · Mason 45% of carries. Back: Mason (missed 4 of 8). Out: Kyler Murray, T.J. Hockenson

   Packers: QB Love · Golden 27% of targets · Watson 21% of targets · Kraft 19% of targets · Lloyd 35% of carries. Back: Johnson (missed 2 of 9). Out: Josh Jacobs

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   After the catch. Vikings gain −0.4 yards after the catch vs expected (4th-worst). Packers allow −0.4 (4th-best tackling).

   Takeaways. Vikings throw an interception on 2% of passes (9th-most). Packers pick off 3% (5th-most).

   On the ground. Packers average 3.7 yards a carry (5th-worst). Vikings allow 4.1 (21st of 32).

   Cousins vs the blitz: 7.0 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Packers blitz on 30% of dropbacks (16th of 32).

   Cousins's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.86 seconds on average, scrambles on 2.3% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Mason to the left: 4.0 yards a carry there (35% of his runs), and Packers give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.

   Jefferson draws 37% of the Vikings targets and averages 2.9 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Love vs the blitz: 7.2 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Vikings blitz on 56% of dropbacks (the most).

   Love's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.70 seconds on average, scrambles on 2.8% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Lloyd to the left: 3.0 yards a carry there (43% of his runs), and Vikings give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.

   Golden draws 27% of the Packers targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Jefferson leads the Vikings in receiving yards in 62% of sims.

   Cousins throws for 300+ in 7%.

   Mason runs for 100+ in 7%.

   Jefferson scores a touchdown in 41%, the likeliest on his team.

   Watson leads the Packers in receiving yards in 38% of sims.

   Love throws for 300+ in 17%.

   Johnson runs for 100+ in 3%.

   Golden scores a touchdown in 43%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Vikings run for 120+ yards (32% of sims), they win 70%, up from 39%.

   When Packers run for 130+ yards (27% of sims), they win 88%, up from 60%.

   When Mason runs for 60+ (29% of sims), they win 65%, up from 39%.

7. Reality check

   Vikings score 18.2 a game (last 8). In the sims: 19.3 against this defense.

   Packers score 24 a game (last 9). In the sims: 22.8 against this defense.

   Cousins: 0 pass yds a game (last 1). In the sims: 197.

   Jefferson: 4.4 catches, 56.4 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 7.1, 79.

   Jones: 59.2 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 42.

   Love: 278.9 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 233.

   Watson: 5.4 catches, 91.5 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4, 64.

   Johnson: 28.7 rush yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 35.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Packers win 60% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (GB −2.5): the Packers cover in 56%.

   Total 42.5: over in 48%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Tucker Kraft2+ catches
     86%of sims
     85Our Rating
     95%books imply
   • Aaron Jones25+ rush + rec yds
     84%of sims
     84Our Rating
     86%books imply
   • Christian Watson40+ rec yds
     67%of sims
     83Our Rating
     87%books imply
   • Justin Jefferson30+ rec yds
     89%of sims
     81Our Rating
     94%books imply
   • MarShawn Lloyd10+ rush yds
     83%of sims
     80Our Rating
     68%books imply