Texans vs Chargers prediction
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, November 8, 2026 · SoFi Stadium. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Texans 24, Chargers 16.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Texans won 69% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- C.J. Stroud Texans 248 pass yds · 2 TD
- Woody Marks Texans 76 rush yds
- Dalton Schultz Texans 5 rec · 63 yds · 1 TD
- Justin Herbert Chargers 191 pass yds
- Omarion Hampton Chargers 51 rush yds · 1 TD
- Quentin Johnston Chargers 3 rec · 42 yds
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stHOU Stroud 1-yd TD run 7–0
- 1stLAC Hampton 3-yd TD run 7–7
- 1stLAC 50-yd field goal 7–10
- 2ndLAC 41-yd field goal 7–13
- 3rdHOU Stroud to Harrison, 8-yd TD 14–13
- 4thLAC 31-yd field goal 14–16
- 4thHOU 41-yd field goal 17–16
- 4thHOU Stroud to Schultz, 2-yd TD 24–16
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 22/34 | 248 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 17 | 76 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 6 | 63 | 1 | 35 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 33 |
| Nico Collins | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 15 |
| Woody Marks | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 24 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 20 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 15 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 17/29 | 191 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 17 | 51 | 1 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 16 |
| Tre Harris | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 18 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 29 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 12 |
| Omarion Hampton | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 13 |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 9 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 13 |
| Kimani Vidal | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Ladd McConkey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Texans blitz on 26% of dropbacks (2nd-fewest in the NFL).
Who's in the sim
Texans: QB Stroud · Collins 22% of targets · Schultz 19% of targets · Hutchinson 17% of targets · Marks 75% of carries. Back: Collins (missed 2 of 7)
Chargers: QB Herbert · Gadsden 17% of targets · McConkey 14% of targets · Johnston 13% of targets · Hampton 42% of carries
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
The pass rush. Chargers take a sack on 9% of dropbacks (4th-most). Texans get home on 8% (5th-most), blitzing on 26% of dropbacks.
On the ground. Chargers average 3.9 yards a carry (7th-worst). Texans allow 3.9 (4th-fewest).
After the catch. Chargers gain −0.4 yards after the catch vs expected (8th-worst). Texans allow −0.5 (4th-best tackling).
Stroud vs the blitz: 6.5 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Chargers blitz on 27% of dropbacks (6th-fewest).
Stroud's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.86 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.5% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Marks to the left: 3.5 yards a carry there (35% of his runs), and Chargers give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.
4th downs: Texans go for it 0.7× as often as an average coach in the same spots.
Collins draws 22% of the Texans targets and averages 2.1 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Herbert vs the blitz: 6.4 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Texans blitz on 26% of dropbacks (2nd-fewest).
Herbert's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.86 seconds on average, scrambles on 8.4% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Hampton to the right: 4.0 yards a carry there (32% of his runs), and Texans give up −0.0 yards a carry on that side.
Gadsden draws 17% of the Chargers targets and averages 3.2 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Collins leads the Texans in receiving yards in 39% of sims.
Stroud throws for 300+ in 24%.
Marks runs for 100+ in 29%.
Marks scores a touchdown in 49%, the likeliest on his team.
Gadsden leads the Chargers in receiving yards in 27% of sims.
Herbert throws for 300+ in 9%.
Hampton runs for 100+ in 4%.
Gadsden scores a touchdown in 33%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Chargers run for 120+ yards (32% of sims), they win 58%, up from 30%.
When Texans run for 130+ yards (32% of sims), they win 93%, up from 69%.
When Hampton runs for 60+ (20% of sims), they win 57%, up from 30%.
Reality check
Texans score 23.6 a game (last 7). In the sims: 25 against this defense.
Chargers score 14.1 a game (last 7). In the sims: 18.2 against this defense.
Stroud: 254.5 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 248.
Collins: 4.8 catches, 65.8 yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 4.3, 62.
Marks: 39.9 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 80.
Herbert: 199.7 pass yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 209.
McConkey: 2.8 catches, 47.7 yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 2.6, 34.
Hampton: 44.1 rush yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 39.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Texans win 69% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (HOU −4.5): the Texans cover in 58%.
Total 40.5: over in 57%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NFL board
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.