Texans vs Browns prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stHOU Stroud to Collins, 6-yd TD 7–0
2. 1stHOU 51-yd field goal 10–0
3. 1stHOU Stroud to Collins, 4-yd TD 17–0
4. 2ndCLE Watson to Boston, 16-yd TD 17–7
5. 3rdHOU 53-yd field goal 20–7
6. 3rdHOU Stroud to Schultz, 12-yd TD 27–7
7. 3rdCLE 41-yd field goal 27–10
8. 4thCLE 33-yd field goal 27–13

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Wind: 12 mph forecast, which trims the deep passing and long kicks.

   Texans blitz on 25% of dropbacks (2nd-fewest in the NFL).

   Browns use play action on 20% of dropbacks (4th-fewest).

2. Who's in the sim

   Texans: QB Stroud · Collins 22% of targets · Schultz 19% of targets · Hutchinson 17% of targets · Marks 44% of carries. Back: Montgomery (missed 3 of 8), Collins (missed 2 of 8)

   Browns: QB Watson · Boston 24% of targets · Fannin 19% of targets · Concepcion 18% of targets · Judkins 58% of carries

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   The pass rush. Browns take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (the most). Texans get home on 8% (2nd-most), blitzing on 25% of dropbacks.

   On the ground. Browns average 3.7 yards a carry (3rd-worst). Texans allow 3.9 (6th-fewest).

   Through the air. Browns complete −1.7 pts more passes than expected (7th-worst). Texans allow −1.0 pts vs expected (10th-least generous).

   Stroud vs the blitz: 6.8 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Browns blitz on 27% of dropbacks (9th-fewest).

   Stroud's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.85 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.5% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Marks to the right: 3.8 yards a carry there (40% of his runs), and Browns give up −0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   4th downs: Texans go for it 0.7× as often as an average coach in the same spots.

   Collins draws 22% of the Texans targets and averages 2.1 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Watson vs the blitz: 5.3 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Texans blitz on 25% of dropbacks (2nd-fewest).

   Watson's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.82 seconds on average, scrambles on 7.8% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Judkins to the right: 3.7 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and Texans give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   Boston draws 24% of the Browns targets and averages 2.2 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Collins leads the Texans in receiving yards in 38% of sims.

   Stroud throws for 300+ in 19%.

   Marks runs for 100+ in 10%.

   Marks scores a touchdown in 41%, the likeliest on his team.

   Boston leads the Browns in receiving yards in 38% of sims.

   Watson throws for 300+ in 8%.

   Judkins runs for 100+ in 7%.

   Boston scores a touchdown in 36%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Browns run for 110+ yards (29% of sims), they win 46%, up from 22%.

   When Judkins runs for 60+ (27% of sims), they win 44%, up from 22%.

   When Texans run for 140+ yards (32% of sims), they win 94%, up from 77%.

7. Reality check

   Texans score 26.1 a game (last 8). In the sims: 26.3 against this defense.

   Browns score 17.9 a game (last 9). In the sims: 16.3 against this defense.

   Stroud: 281.4 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 239.

   Dell: 2.5 catches, 74 yds a game (last 2). In the sims: 1, 15.

   Marks: 42.6 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 54.

   Watson: 228.7 pass yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 201.

   Boston: 3.8 catches, 56.2 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 3.8, 53.

   Judkins: 50.3 rush yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 46.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Texans win 77% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (HOU −4.5): the Texans cover in 67%.

   Total 40.5: over in 53%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Kayshon Boutte10+ rec yds
     84%of sims
     89Our Rating
     78%books imply
   • Kayshon Boutte1+ catches
     91%of sims
     89Our Rating
   • Nico Collins3+ catches
     73%of sims
     87Our Rating
     87%books imply
   • Woody Marks15+ rush yds
     92%of sims
     87Our Rating
   • David Montgomery15+ rush yds
     84%of sims
     85Our Rating