Steelers vs Bengals prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stPIT Dowdle 5-yd TD run 6–0
2. 2ndCIN 44-yd field goal 6–3
3. 2ndPIT Rodgers to Bernard, 3-yd TD 13–3
4. 2ndPIT Rodgers to Washington, 38-yd TD 20–3
5. 4thPIT 36-yd field goal 23–3
6. 4thCIN Burrow to Chase, 30-yd TD 23–10
7. 4thPIT 42-yd field goal 26–10
8. 4thCIN Burrow to Higgins, 9-yd TD 26–16

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Bengals blitz on 22% of dropbacks (the fewest in the NFL).

   Steelers use play action on 19% of dropbacks (3rd-fewest).

   Bengals use play action on 17% of dropbacks (the fewest).

2. Who's in the sim

   Steelers: QB Rodgers · Metcalf 25% of targets · Bernard 20% of targets · Washington 15% of targets · Warren 54% of carries. Back: Dowdle (missed 3 of 8)

   Bengals: QB Burrow · Chase 27% of targets · Higgins 23% of targets · Brown 14% of targets · Brown 53% of carries

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   After the catch. Steelers gain +0.3 yards after the catch vs expected (3rd-best). Bengals allow +0.6 (the worst tackling).

   On the ground. Steelers average 4.7 yards a carry (3rd-best). Bengals allow 4.7 (2nd-most).

   Through the air. Bengals complete +3.4 pts more passes than expected (2nd-best). Steelers allow −0.7 pts vs expected (19th of 32 generous).

   Rodgers vs the blitz: 4.9 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Bengals blitz on 22% of dropbacks (the fewest).

   Rodgers's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.67 seconds on average, scrambles on 2.6% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Warren to the left: 6.0 yards a carry there (43% of his runs), and Bengals give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   4th downs: Steelers go for it 0.8× as often as an average coach in the same spots.

   Metcalf draws 25% of the Steelers targets and averages 2.5 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Burrow vs the blitz: 6.6 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Steelers blitz on 31% of dropbacks (15th of 32).

   Burrow's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.70 seconds on average, scrambles on 3.8% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Brown to the left: 4.2 yards a carry there (40% of his runs), and Steelers give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   Chase draws 27% of the Bengals targets and averages 3.1 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Metcalf leads the Steelers in receiving yards in 39% of sims.

   Rodgers throws for 300+ in 16%.

   Warren runs for 100+ in 35%.

   Warren scores a touchdown in 57%, the likeliest on his team.

   Chase leads the Bengals in receiving yards in 43% of sims.

   Burrow throws for 300+ in 26%.

   Brown runs for 100+ in 6%.

   Chase scores a touchdown in 44%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Bengals run for 100+ yards (31% of sims), they win 64%, up from 33%.

   When Steelers run for 170+ yards (32% of sims), they win 93%, up from 66%.

   When Brown runs for 60+ (25% of sims), they win 61%, up from 33%.

7. Reality check

   Steelers score 22.5 a game (last 8). In the sims: 27.9 against this defense.

   Bengals score 30 a game (last 8). In the sims: 21.8 against this defense.

   Rodgers: 233.9 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 231.

   Metcalf: 4.1 catches, 47.2 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4.4, 61.

   Warren: 88 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 87.

   Burrow: 298.2 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 249.

   Higgins: 6 catches, 94.8 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 5.2, 71.

   Brown: 49.6 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 44.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Steelers win 66% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (CIN −3.5): the Bengals cover in 27%.

   Total 49.5: over in 49%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Chase Brown2+ catches
     86%of sims
     95Our Rating
     95%books imply
   • Rico Dowdle1+ catches
     89%of sims
     91Our Rating
     94%books imply
   • Mike Gesicki1+ catches
     90%of sims
     91Our Rating
   • Jaylen Warren30+ rush yds
     92%of sims
     91Our Rating
     93%books imply
   • Joe Burrow1+ pass TDs
     83%of sims
     87Our Rating
     96%books imply