Seahawks vs Raiders prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stSEA Charbonnet 6-yd TD run 7–0
2. 2ndLV Mendoza 30-yd TD run 7–7
3. 2ndSEA 22-yd field goal 10–7
4. 3rdSEA Price 5-yd TD run 17–7
5. 3rdLV 20-yd field goal 17–10
6. 4thSEA Safety 19–10
7. 4thSEA Lock to Smith-Njigba, 29-yd TD 26–10
8. 4thLV 45-yd field goal 26–13

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Raiders start Fernando Mendoza, who took 2% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.

   Seahawks start Drew Lock, who took 16% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.

   Raiders blitz on 27% of dropbacks (5th-fewest in the NFL).

2. Who's in the sim

   Seahawks: QB Lock · Smith-Njigba 27% of targets · Barner 15% of targets · Kupp 12% of targets · Wilson 33% of carries. Back: Charbonnet (missed 7 of 9), Price (missed 4 of 9), Wilson (missed 2 of 9). Out: Sam Darnold

   Raiders: QB Mendoza · Bowers 25% of targets · Tucker 18% of targets · Jeanty 15% of targets · Jeanty 41% of carries. Back: Bowers (missed 2 of 9)

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   On the ground. Raiders average 3.5 yards a carry (the worst). Seahawks allow 3.6 (the fewest).

   Through the air. Raiders complete −2.0 pts more passes than expected (4th-worst). Seahawks allow −1.4 pts vs expected (6th-least generous).

   Takeaways. Raiders throw an interception on 3% of passes (8th-most). Seahawks pick off 3% (7th-most).

   Lock vs the blitz: 5.8 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Raiders blitz on 27% of dropbacks (5th-fewest).

   Lock's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.64 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.4% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Wilson to the right: 3.7 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and Raiders give up +0.5 yards a carry on that side.

   4th downs: Seahawks go for it 0.7× as often as an average coach in the same spots.

   Smith-Njigba draws 27% of the Seahawks targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Mendoza's pocket: scrambles on 6.0% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Jeanty to the right: 2.8 yards a carry there (33% of his runs), and Seahawks give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.

   Bowers draws 25% of the Raiders targets and averages 2.5 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Small sample: Drew Lock's numbers rest on 83 dropbacks, so they are shrunk toward a typical backup.

   Small sample: Fernando Mendoza's numbers rest on 9 dropbacks, so they are shrunk toward a typical backup.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Smith-Njigba leads the Seahawks in receiving yards in 65% of sims.

   Lock throws for 300+ in 12%.

   Wilson runs for 100+ in 5%.

   Smith-Njigba scores a touchdown in 44%, the likeliest on his team.

   Bowers leads the Raiders in receiving yards in 47% of sims.

   Mendoza throws for 300+ in 5%.

   Jeanty runs for 100+ in 2%.

   Bowers scores a touchdown in 30%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Raiders run for 90+ yards (32% of sims), they win 43%, up from 22%.

   When Seahawks run for 160+ yards (31% of sims), they win 95%, up from 77%.

   When Wilson runs for 60+ (24% of sims), they win 92%, up from 77%.

7. Reality check

   Seahawks score 22.4 a game (last 9). In the sims: 25.8 against this defense.

   Raiders score 26.4 a game (last 9). In the sims: 15.8 against this defense.

   Lock: 205 pass yds a game (last 2). In the sims: 221.

   Smith-Njigba: 7.9 catches, 114.2 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 5.7, 77.

   Wilson: 66.7 rush yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 43.

   Mendoza: 48 pass yds a game (last 1). In the sims: 189.

   Bowers: 6.9 catches, 94 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 5.3, 55.

   Jeanty: 32.5 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 27.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Seahawks win 77% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (SEA −6.5): the Seahawks cover in 61%.

   Total 40.5: over in 51%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • AJ Barner1+ catches
     93%of sims
     91Our Rating
   • Jaxon Smith-Njigba5+ catches
     63%of sims
     89Our Rating
     89%books imply
   • Rashid Shaheed1+ catches
     68%of sims
     89Our Rating
   • Brock Bowers4+ catches
     72%of sims
     87Our Rating
     83%books imply
   • Brock Bowers30+ rec yds
     75%of sims
     87Our Rating
     86%books imply