Rams vs Commanders prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stWAS 47-yd field goal 0–3
2. 1stLA 28-yd field goal 3–3
3. 2ndLA Stafford to Nacua, 9-yd TD 10–3
4. 2ndWAS White 3-yd TD run 10–10
5. 2ndLA Stafford to Williams, 13-yd TD 17–10
6. 3rdWAS 34-yd field goal 17–13
7. 3rdWAS Daniels to Burks, 4-yd TD 17–20
8. 4thLA Williams 5-yd TD run 24–20

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Wind: 13 mph forecast, which trims the deep passing and long kicks.

   Commanders blitz on 36% of dropbacks (4th-most in the NFL).

   Rams use play action on 28% of dropbacks (3rd-most).

2. Who's in the sim

   Rams: QB Stafford · Nacua 37% of targets · Williams 16% of targets · Higbee 13% of targets · Williams 55% of carries. Back: Nacua (missed 2 of 8)

   Commanders: QB Daniels · Diggs 23% of targets · Okonkwo 17% of targets · Williams 16% of targets · White 41% of carries. Back: Okonkwo (missed 2 of 7)

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   Through the air. Rams complete +1.0 pts more passes than expected (7th-best). Commanders allow +1.2 pts vs expected (6th-most generous).

   The pass rush. Rams take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (the fewest). Commanders get home on 7% (15th of 32), blitzing on 36% of dropbacks.

   After the catch. Rams gain −0.0 yards after the catch vs expected (11th of 32). Commanders allow +0.1 (7th-worst tackling).

   Stafford vs the blitz: 6.8 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Commanders blitz on 36% of dropbacks (4th-most).

   Stafford's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.76 seconds on average, scrambles on 2.1% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Williams to the right: 5.0 yards a carry there (30% of his runs), and Commanders give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   Nacua draws 37% of the Rams targets and averages 2.9 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Daniels vs the blitz: 6.2 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Rams blitz on 28% of dropbacks (11th-fewest).

   Daniels's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.86 seconds on average, scrambles on 11.3% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   White to the right: 4.2 yards a carry there (35% of his runs), and Rams give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.

   Diggs draws 23% of the Commanders targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Nacua leads the Rams in receiving yards in 82% of sims.

   Stafford throws for 300+ in 32%.

   Williams runs for 100+ in 17%.

   Nacua scores a touchdown in 69%, the likeliest on his team.

   Diggs leads the Commanders in receiving yards in 40% of sims.

   Daniels throws for 300+ in 8%.

   White runs for 100+ in 7%.

   White scores a touchdown in 41%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Commanders run for 150+ yards (28% of sims), they win 64%, up from 32%.

   When Rams run for 150+ yards (30% of sims), they win 94%, up from 67%.

   When White runs for 60+ (28% of sims), they win 59%, up from 32%.

7. Reality check

   Rams score 24.2 a game (last 8). In the sims: 26.8 against this defense.

   Commanders score 22.7 a game (last 7). In the sims: 20.3 against this defense.

   Stafford: 268.2 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 265.

   Nacua: 9.3 catches, 94.2 yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 9.3, 119.

   Williams: 68.5 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 63.

   Daniels: 195.2 pass yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 203.

   Diggs: 4.5 catches, 42 yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 4.8, 55.

   White: 33.3 rush yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 46.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Rams win 67% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (LA −5.5): the Rams cover in 54%.

   Total 47.5: over in 47%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: the sims vs the price

   • Puka Nacuaanytime TD
     69%of sims
     57%books imply