Rams vs Cardinals prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stLA Stafford to Atwell, 33-yd TD 7–0
2. 1stARI Beck to McBride, 2-yd TD 7–7
3. 2ndARI Beck to McBride, 18-yd TD 7–14
4. 3rdLA Williams 1-yd TD run 14–14
5. 4thARI 21-yd field goal 14–17
6. 4thLA Corum 1-yd TD run 21–17
7. 4thLA Stafford to Parkinson, 5-yd TD 28–17

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Cardinals start Carson Beck, who took 0% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.

   Rams use play action on 27% of dropbacks (4th-most).

2. Who's in the sim

   Rams: QB Stafford · Higbee 20% of targets · Williams 20% of targets · Parkinson 16% of targets · Williams 56% of carries. Out: Puka Nacua

   Cardinals: QB Beck · McBride 45% of targets · Higgins 15% of targets · Allgeier 15% of targets · Allgeier 53% of carries. Back: Knight (missed 3 of 9). Out: Gardner Minshew, Michael Wilson, Kendrick Bourne

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   Through the air. Cardinals complete −2.6 pts more passes than expected (2nd-worst). Rams allow −2.2 pts vs expected (4th-least generous).

   Takeaways. Cardinals throw an interception on 3% of passes (3rd-most). Rams pick off 2% (8th-most).

   The pass rush. Rams take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (the fewest). Cardinals get home on 6% (11th of 32), blitzing on 30% of dropbacks.

   Stafford vs the blitz: 6.7 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Cardinals blitz on 30% of dropbacks (17th of 32).

   Stafford's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.75 seconds on average, scrambles on 2.1% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Williams to the right: 5.0 yards a carry there (28% of his runs), and Cardinals give up +0.4 yards a carry on that side.

   Higbee draws 20% of the Rams targets and averages 2.9 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Beck's pocket: scrambles on 5.7% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Allgeier to the left: 5.3 yards a carry there (36% of his runs), and Rams give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   McBride draws 45% of the Cardinals targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Small sample: Carson Beck's numbers rest on 0 dropbacks, so they are shrunk toward a typical backup.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Higbee leads the Rams in receiving yards in 34% of sims.

   Stafford throws for 300+ in 26%.

   Williams runs for 100+ in 17%.

   Williams scores a touchdown in 60%, the likeliest on his team.

   McBride leads the Cardinals in receiving yards in 80% of sims.

   Beck throws for 300+ in 11%.

   Allgeier runs for 100+ in 8%.

   McBride scores a touchdown in 53%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Cardinals run for 120+ yards (28% of sims), they win 54%, up from 26%.

   When Allgeier runs for 70+ (23% of sims), they win 55%, up from 26%.

   When Rams run for 150+ yards (30% of sims), they win 96%, up from 73%.

7. Reality check

   Rams score 23.8 a game (last 9). In the sims: 27.8 against this defense.

   Cardinals score 19.8 a game (last 9). In the sims: 19.1 against this defense.

   Stafford: 277.4 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 255.

   Higbee: 3.7 catches, 39.3 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 4.9, 59.

   Williams: 69 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 65.

   Beck: 0 pass yds a game (last 1). In the sims: 213.

   McBride: 8 catches, 62.9 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 10.7, 103.

   Allgeier: 38.5 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 49.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Rams win 73% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (LA −9.5): the Rams cover in 48%.

   Total 39.5: over in 70%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Matthew Stafford1+ pass TDs
     88%of sims
     89Our Rating
     86%books imply
   • Kyren Williams1+ catches
     99%of sims
     89Our Rating
   • Kyren Williams65+ rush + rec yds
     80%of sims
     88Our Rating
   • Kyren Williams50+ rush yds
     61%of sims
     86Our Rating
     74%books imply
   • Blake Corum15+ rush yds
     91%of sims
     86Our Rating