Raiders vs 49ers prediction
Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Levi's Stadium. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: 49ers 27, Raiders 17.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the 49ers won 70% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Kirk Cousins Raiders 203 pass yds · 2 TD
- Ashton Jeanty Raiders 23 rush yds · 1 TD
- Brock Bowers Raiders 10 rec · 109 yds · 1 TD
- Brock Purdy 49ers 199 pass yds · 1 TD
- Christian McCaffrey 49ers 122 rush yds
- George Kittle 49ers 5 rec · 46 yds · 1 TD
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stLV 48-yd field goal 3–0
- 1stSF Black 1-yd TD run 3–7
- 2ndSF Black 2-yd TD run 3–14
- 2ndSF 38-yd field goal 3–17
- 3rdSF Purdy to Kittle, 2-yd TD 3–24
- 3rdLV Cousins to Jeanty, 1-yd TD 10–24
- 4thSF 25-yd field goal 10–27
- 4thLV Cousins to Bowers, 5-yd TD 17–27
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 25/37 | 203 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Connor Heyward | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Laube | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 10 | 12 | 109 | 1 | 16 |
| Tre Tucker | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 17 |
| Michael Mayer | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 18 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 5 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 10 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Cody White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 22/30 | 199 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 122 | 0 |
| Kaelon Black | 15 | 46 | 2 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jordan James | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 10 | 56 | 0 | 13 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 8 | 46 | 1 | 22 |
| Kaelon Black | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 23 |
| Jacob Cowing | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 13 |
| Jordan Watkins | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 18 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
The breakdown
The setup
Raiders blitz on 26% of dropbacks (4th-fewest in the NFL).
Who's in the sim
Raiders: QB Cousins · Bowers 26% of targets · Tucker 17% of targets · Jeanty 15% of targets · Jeanty 44% of carries. Back: Bowers (missed 2 of 8)
49ers: QB Purdy · Kittle 32% of targets · McCaffrey 24% of targets · Juszczyk 9% of targets · McCaffrey 48% of carries. Out: Mike Evans
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
Through the air. 49ers complete +2.4 pts more passes than expected (3rd-best). Raiders allow +2.2 pts vs expected (4th-most generous).
On the ground. Raiders average 3.6 yards a carry (the worst). 49ers allow 4.0 (9th-fewest).
The pass rush. Raiders take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (10th-fewest). 49ers get home on 5% (the fewest), blitzing on 29% of dropbacks.
Cousins vs the blitz: 6.7 yards a dropback (league 6.1). 49ers blitz on 29% of dropbacks (21st of 32).
Cousins's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.87 seconds on average, scrambles on 2.5% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Jeanty to the left: 3.1 yards a carry there (31% of his runs), and 49ers give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.
Bowers draws 26% of the Raiders targets and averages 2.5 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Purdy vs the blitz: 8.0 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Raiders blitz on 26% of dropbacks (4th-fewest).
Purdy's pocket: gets the ball out in 3.08 seconds on average, scrambles on 6.2% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
McCaffrey to the right: 4.3 yards a carry there (35% of his runs), and Raiders give up +0.5 yards a carry on that side.
Kittle draws 32% of the 49ers targets and averages 3.3 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Bowers leads the Raiders in receiving yards in 50% of sims.
Cousins throws for 300+ in 17%.
Washington runs for 100+ in 2%.
Bowers scores a touchdown in 44%, the likeliest on his team.
Kittle leads the 49ers in receiving yards in 62% of sims.
Purdy throws for 300+ in 18%.
McCaffrey runs for 100+ in 19%.
Kittle scores a touchdown in 65%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Raiders run for 90+ yards (31% of sims), they win 57%, up from 28%.
When 49ers run for 170+ yards (30% of sims), they win 95%, up from 70%.
When McCaffrey runs for 90+ (25% of sims), they win 92%, up from 70%.
Reality check
Raiders score 27.6 a game (last 8). In the sims: 19.7 against this defense.
49ers score 28.1 a game (last 7). In the sims: 27 against this defense.
Cousins: 265.5 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 231.
Bowers: 6.8 catches, 91.2 yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 6.3, 69.
Jeanty: 42.1 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 29.
Purdy: 234.4 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 241.
Kittle: 4.9 catches, 56.8 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 7.3, 87.
McCaffrey: 51.5 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 68.
The 10,000 vs the market
The 49ers win 70% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (SF −10): the 49ers cover in 40%.
Total 51.5: over in 34%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NFL board
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.