Patriots vs Lions prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stDET Goff to Gibbs, 12-yd TD 0–7
2. 1stNE Maye to Chism, 4-yd TD 7–7
3. 1stNE Maye to Douglas, 23-yd TD 14–7
4. 2ndNE 39-yd field goal 17–7
5. 2ndDET Gibbs 1-yd TD run 17–14
6. 3rdDET Goff to TeSlaa, 8-yd TD 17–21
7. 4thNE Stevenson 1-yd TD run 24–21
8. 4thDET Goff to Williams, 1-yd TD 24–28

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Lions use play action on 27% of dropbacks (2nd-most).

2. Who's in the sim

   Patriots: QB Maye · Brown 19% of targets · Douglas 16% of targets · Hollins 14% of targets · Stevenson 49% of carries. Back: Brown (missed 6 of 9), Hollins (missed 4 of 9)

   Lions: QB Goff · St. Brown 29% of targets · LaPorta 19% of targets · Williams 18% of targets · Gibbs 74% of carries

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   Through the air. Patriots complete +3.6 pts more passes than expected (the best). Lions allow +1.1 pts vs expected (7th-most generous).

   Takeaways. Lions throw an interception on 1% of passes (the fewest). Patriots pick off 2% (11th of 32).

   The pass rush. Patriots take a sack on 7% of dropbacks (10th-most). Lions get home on 8% (6th-most), blitzing on 29% of dropbacks.

   Maye vs the blitz: 8.0 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Lions blitz on 29% of dropbacks (19th of 32).

   Maye's pocket: gets the ball out in 3.06 seconds on average, scrambles on 9.0% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Stevenson to the left: 4.2 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and Lions give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.

   Brown draws 19% of the Patriots targets and averages 2.2 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Goff vs the blitz: 6.9 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Patriots blitz on 33% of dropbacks (9th-most).

   Goff's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.78 seconds on average, scrambles on 2.4% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Gibbs to the right: 5.2 yards a carry there (37% of his runs), and Patriots give up −0.2 yards a carry on that side.

   4th downs: Lions go for it 1.3× as often as an average coach in the same spots.

   St. Brown draws 29% of the Lions targets and averages 2.9 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Brown leads the Patriots in receiving yards in 24% of sims.

   Maye throws for 300+ in 26%.

   Stevenson runs for 100+ in 10%.

   Stevenson scores a touchdown in 43%, the likeliest on his team.

   St. Brown leads the Lions in receiving yards in 47% of sims.

   Goff throws for 300+ in 21%.

   Gibbs runs for 100+ in 39%.

   Gibbs scores a touchdown in 66%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Patriots run for 140+ yards (31% of sims), they win 76%, up from 48%.

   When Lions run for 150+ yards (30% of sims), they win 83%, up from 51%.

   When Gibbs runs for 120+ (25% of sims), they win 83%, up from 51%.

7. Reality check

   Patriots score 23.4 a game (last 9). In the sims: 26 against this defense.

   Lions score 27.8 a game (last 8). In the sims: 26.7 against this defense.

   Maye: 263 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 254.

   Douglas: 3.2 catches, 51.8 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 3.1, 43.

   Stevenson: 43.5 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 53.

   Goff: 266.8 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 242.

   St. Brown: 7.6 catches, 83.2 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 6.2, 75.

   Gibbs: 105.9 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 93.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Lions win 51% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (DET −2.5): the Lions cover in 47%.

   Total 49.5: over in 58%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • DeMario Douglas1+ catches
     93%of sims
     92Our Rating
   • A.J. Brown2+ catches
     82%of sims
     91Our Rating
     94%books imply
   • Jared Goff1+ pass TDs
     87%of sims
     90Our Rating
     92%books imply
   • Jahmyr Gibbs2+ catches
     83%of sims
     89Our Rating
   • Eli Raridon1+ catches
     87%of sims
     88Our Rating