Patriots vs Bears prediction
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears, Thursday, October 22, 2026 · Soldier Field. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Patriots 27, Bears 24.
Final: CHI 30–24. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Patriots 27, Bears 24 (the Patriots won 55% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Patriots won 55% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Drake Maye Patriots 247 pass yds · 2 TD
- TreVeyon Henderson Patriots 65 rush yds
- Eli Raridon Patriots 6 rec · 86 yds
- Caleb Williams Bears 151 pass yds · 2 TD
- Roschon Johnson Bears 63 rush yds
- Colston Loveland Bears 7 rec · 47 yds · 1 TD
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stNE Maye to Stevenson, 17-yd TD 7–0
- 1stNE 48-yd field goal 10–0
- 1stCHI 32-yd field goal 10–3
- 2ndNE Maye 4-yd TD run 17–3
- 2ndCHI Williams to Walker, 1-yd TD 17–10
- 2ndCHI Turnover returned for a TD 17–17
- 3rdNE 41-yd field goal 20–17
- 3rdNE Maye to Henry, 2-yd TD 27–17
- 3rdCHI Williams to Loveland, 3-yd TD 27–24
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.