Panthers vs Saints prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 2ndNO Shough to Lance, 3-yd TD 0–7
2. 2ndCAR Young to Coker, 19-yd TD 7–7
3. 2ndNO 40-yd field goal 7–10
4. 2ndCAR Young to McMillan, 6-yd TD 14–10
5. 3rdCAR Tyus 2-yd TD run 21–10
6. 3rdNO 42-yd field goal 21–13
7. 4thCAR 24-yd field goal 24–13
8. 4thNO Shough to Olave, 17-yd TD 24–19

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Saints use play action on 18% of dropbacks (2nd-fewest).

2. Who's in the sim

   Panthers: QB Young · McMillan 22% of targets · Coker 18% of targets · Waller 14% of targets · Hubbard 70% of carries

   Saints: QB Shough · Olave 25% of targets · Vele 15% of targets · Johnson 14% of targets · Estime 47% of carries. Back: Estime (missed 7 of 8)

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   After the catch. Saints gain −0.7 yards after the catch vs expected (the worst). Panthers allow −0.4 (5th-best tackling).

   The pass rush. Panthers take a sack on 7% of dropbacks (11th-most). Saints get home on 8% (5th-most), blitzing on 33% of dropbacks.

   Through the air. Saints complete +1.3 pts more passes than expected (5th-best). Panthers allow −0.3 pts vs expected (17th of 32 generous).

   Young vs the blitz: 5.5 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Saints blitz on 33% of dropbacks (8th-most).

   Young's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.84 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.1% of dropbacks (league 5.7%). Saints let quarterbacks escape 16% more often than average.

   Hubbard to the left: 5.2 yards a carry there (43% of his runs), and Saints give up −0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   McMillan draws 22% of the Panthers targets and averages 2.7 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Shough vs the blitz: 5.2 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Panthers blitz on 32% of dropbacks (13th of 32).

   Shough's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.72 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.9% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Estime to the left: 4.3 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and Panthers give up −0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   Olave draws 25% of the Saints targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   McMillan leads the Panthers in receiving yards in 38% of sims.

   Young throws for 300+ in 20%.

   Hubbard runs for 100+ in 30%.

   Hubbard scores a touchdown in 58%, the likeliest on his team.

   Olave leads the Saints in receiving yards in 49% of sims.

   Shough throws for 300+ in 19%.

   Estime runs for 100+ in 8%.

   Olave scores a touchdown in 34%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Saints run for 120+ yards (32% of sims), they win 75%, up from 44%.

   When Panthers run for 140+ yards (32% of sims), they win 84%, up from 54%.

   When Hubbard runs for 110+ (24% of sims), they win 85%, up from 54%.

7. Reality check

   Panthers score 24.9 a game (last 8). In the sims: 24.2 against this defense.

   Saints score 23.1 a game (last 8). In the sims: 22.5 against this defense.

   Young: 274.6 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 241.

   McMillan: 5.8 catches, 78.2 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4.4, 59.

   Hubbard: 77.4 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 81.

   Shough: 248.2 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 236.

   Olave: 7 catches, 91.8 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 5.7, 67.

   Estime: 72 rush yds a game (last 1). In the sims: 48.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Panthers win 54% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (NO −2.5): the Saints cover in 41%.

   Total 48.5: over in 43%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Alvin Kamara10+ rush yds
     82%of sims
     90Our Rating
   • Chris Olave40+ rec yds
     71%of sims
     90Our Rating
     87%books imply
   • Chris Olave4+ catches
     77%of sims
     88Our Rating
     88%books imply
   • Chuba Hubbard15+ rush yds
     98%of sims
     87Our Rating
   • Chuba Hubbard1+ catches
     92%of sims
     86Our Rating