Packers vs Patriots prediction
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots, Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Gillette Stadium. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Patriots 23, Packers 21.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Patriots won 56% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jordan Love Packers 239 pass yds · 1 TD
- Josh Jacobs Packers 57 rush yds · 2 TD
- Christian Watson Packers 5 rec · 81 yds
- Drake Maye Patriots 196 pass yds
- Rhamondre Stevenson Patriots 88 rush yds · 1 TD
- DeMario Douglas Patriots 4 rec · 66 yds
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stNE 36-yd field goal 0–3
- 1stGB Love to Golden, 33-yd TD 7–3
- 2ndNE Maye 1-yd TD run 7–10
- 2ndGB Jacobs 1-yd TD run 14–10
- 2ndNE 21-yd field goal 14–13
- 3rdNE Stevenson 4-yd TD run 14–20
- 3rdGB Jacobs 6-yd TD run 21–20
- 3rdNE 45-yd field goal 21–23
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 19/25 | 239 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 57 | 2 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 5 | 6 | 81 | 0 | 24 |
| Matthew Golden | 3 | 4 | 71 | 1 | 35 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 19 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 8 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 12 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| Savion Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 20/30 | 196 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 19 | 88 | 1 |
| Corey Kiner | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| Lan Larison | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 34 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 10 |
| Eli Raridon | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 18 |
| Efton Chism III | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 16 |
| Kyle Williams | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10 |
The breakdown
Who's in the sim
Packers: QB Love · Golden 26% of targets · Watson 20% of targets · Kraft 18% of targets · Jacobs 55% of carries. Back: Jacobs (missed 6 of 8)
Patriots: QB Maye · Douglas 28% of targets · Raridon 22% of targets · Chism 21% of targets · Stevenson 52% of carries. Out: Hunter Henry, TreVeyon Henderson, A.J. Brown
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
On the ground. Packers average 3.7 yards a carry (4th-worst). Patriots allow 4.0 (10th-fewest).
Through the air. Patriots complete +3.8 pts more passes than expected (the best). Packers allow −0.1 pts vs expected (16th of 32 generous).
Takeaways. Packers throw an interception on 2% of passes (6th-fewest). Patriots pick off 2% (12th of 32).
Love vs the blitz: 6.9 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Patriots blitz on 33% of dropbacks (10th-most).
Love's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.70 seconds on average, scrambles on 2.7% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Jacobs to the left: 2.5 yards a carry there (34% of his runs), and Patriots give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.
Golden draws 26% of the Packers targets and averages 2.7 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Maye vs the blitz: 8.3 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Packers blitz on 30% of dropbacks (17th of 32).
Maye's pocket: gets the ball out in 3.04 seconds on average, scrambles on 9.5% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Stevenson to the left: 4.1 yards a carry there (37% of his runs), and Packers give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.
Douglas draws 28% of the Patriots targets and averages 3.9 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Watson leads the Packers in receiving yards in 35% of sims.
Love throws for 300+ in 21%.
Jacobs runs for 100+ in 6%.
Jacobs scores a touchdown in 48%, the likeliest on his team.
Douglas leads the Patriots in receiving yards in 42% of sims.
Maye throws for 300+ in 17%.
Stevenson runs for 100+ in 15%.
Stevenson scores a touchdown in 49%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Packers run for 100+ yards (33% of sims), they win 72%, up from 42%.
When Patriots run for 150+ yards (32% of sims), they win 85%, up from 56%.
When Jacobs runs for 60+ (25% of sims), they win 70%, up from 42%.
Reality check
Packers score 21.4 a game (last 8). In the sims: 21.8 against this defense.
Patriots score 23 a game (last 8). In the sims: 24.5 against this defense.
Love: 280.8 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 240.
Watson: 5.2 catches, 88.5 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4, 62.
Jacobs: 37.5 rush yds a game (last 2). In the sims: 43.
Maye: 247.9 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 235.
Douglas: 3.2 catches, 41.5 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 5.7, 72.
Stevenson: 45.9 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 61.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Patriots win 56% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (NE −2.5): the Patriots cover in 52%.
Total 46.5: over in 49%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NFL board
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.