Lions vs Dolphins prediction
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Lions 26, Dolphins 17.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Lions won 70% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jared Goff Lions 258 pass yds
- Jahmyr Gibbs Lions 77 rush yds · 2 TD
- Jameson Williams Lions 4 rec · 85 yds
- Malik Willis Dolphins 170 pass yds · 2 TD
- Ollie Gordon II Dolphins 61 rush yds
- Greg Dulcich Dolphins 4 rec · 50 yds · 1 TD
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stDET 26-yd field goal 3–0
- 1stMIA Willis to Washington, 13-yd TD 3–7
- 2ndDET 26-yd field goal 6–7
- 2ndMIA Willis to Dulcich, 6-yd TD 6–14
- 3rdDET 41-yd field goal 9–14
- 3rdDET Gibbs 4-yd TD run 16–14
- 3rdDET Gibbs 10-yd TD run 23–14
- 4thDET 44-yd field goal 26–14
- 4thMIA 36-yd field goal 26–17
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/30 | 258 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 24 | 77 | 2 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Sione Vaki | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 4 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 45 |
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 29 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 17 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 29 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 11 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 4 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Sione Vaki | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 16/21 | 170 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Gordon II | 12 | 61 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dulcich | 4 | 4 | 50 | 1 | 28 |
| Caleb Douglas | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 14 |
| Malik Washington | 4 | 8 | 44 | 1 | 13 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
| Jaylen Wright | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
The breakdown
The setup
Lions use play action on 28% of dropbacks (4th-most).
Who's in the sim
Lions: QB Goff · St. Brown 29% of targets · LaPorta 19% of targets · Williams 19% of targets · Gibbs 74% of carries
Dolphins: QB Willis · Washington 20% of targets · Douglas 18% of targets · Dulcich 18% of targets · Gordon 58% of carries. Back: Douglas (missed 3 of 7)
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
Through the air. Lions complete +1.0 pts more passes than expected (8th-best). Dolphins allow +5.0 pts vs expected (the most generous).
The pass rush. Dolphins take a sack on 9% of dropbacks (5th-most). Lions get home on 7% (6th-most), blitzing on 29% of dropbacks.
Takeaways. Lions throw an interception on 1% of passes (the fewest). Dolphins pick off 2% (11th of 32).
Goff vs the blitz: 7.0 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Dolphins blitz on 30% of dropbacks (18th of 32).
Goff's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.78 seconds on average, scrambles on 2.4% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Gibbs to the right: 5.4 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and Dolphins give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.
St. Brown draws 29% of the Lions targets and averages 2.9 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Willis vs the blitz: 5.7 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Lions blitz on 29% of dropbacks (20th of 32).
Willis's pocket: gets the ball out in 3.05 seconds on average, scrambles on 9.4% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Gordon to the left: 4.6 yards a carry there (33% of his runs), and Lions give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.
Washington draws 20% of the Dolphins targets and averages 3.4 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
St. Brown leads the Lions in receiving yards in 43% of sims.
Goff throws for 300+ in 19%.
Gibbs runs for 100+ in 50%.
Gibbs scores a touchdown in 72%, the likeliest on his team.
Douglas leads the Dolphins in receiving yards in 31% of sims.
Willis throws for 300+ in 7%.
Gordon runs for 100+ in 18%.
Gordon scores a touchdown in 42%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Dolphins run for 140+ yards (31% of sims), they win 59%, up from 28%.
When Gordon runs for 90+ (24% of sims), they win 61%, up from 28%.
When Lions run for 170+ yards (31% of sims), they win 95%, up from 70%.
Reality check
Lions score 29 a game (last 7). In the sims: 27.7 against this defense.
Dolphins score 16.7 a game (last 7). In the sims: 20 against this defense.
Goff: 286.9 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 239.
St. Brown: 8 catches, 89.9 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 5.9, 71.
Gibbs: 106.6 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 106.
Willis: 181.1 pass yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 201.
Douglas: 3.2 catches, 56.5 yds a game (last 4). In the sims: 3.1, 47.
Gordon: 59.6 rush yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 67.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Lions win 70% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (DET −7): the Lions cover in 49%.
Total 50.5: over in 41%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NFL board
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.