Jets vs Chiefs prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stKC 33-yd field goal 0–3
2. 1stNYJ Smith to Woods, 1-yd TD 7–3
3. 1stKC Mahomes to Walker, 3-yd TD 7–10
4. 2ndKC 34-yd field goal 7–13
5. 2ndNYJ 30-yd field goal 10–13
6. 2ndKC Mahomes to Gray, 9-yd TD 10–20
7. 3rdKC Walker 29-yd TD run 10–27
8. 3rdKC 23-yd field goal 10–30
9. 4thNYJ Smith to Wilson, 3-yd TD 17–30

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Jets use play action on 20% of dropbacks (5th-fewest).

2. Who's in the sim

   Jets: QB Smith · Wilson 23% of targets · Mitchell 20% of targets · Taylor 16% of targets · Allen 69% of carries. Back: Mitchell (missed 4 of 8), Taylor (missed 2 of 8)

   Chiefs: QB Mahomes · Worthy 18% of targets · Rice 18% of targets · Kelce 18% of targets · Walker 74% of carries. Back: Rice (missed 2 of 7)

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   After the catch. Chiefs gain +0.5 yards after the catch vs expected (the best). Jets allow +0.2 (3rd-worst tackling).

   Takeaways. Chiefs throw an interception on 2% of passes (9th-fewest). Jets pick off 1% (the fewest).

   Smith vs the blitz: 6.0 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Chiefs blitz on 32% of dropbacks (12th of 32).

   Smith's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.90 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.5% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Allen to the right: 5.7 yards a carry there (39% of his runs), and Chiefs give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.

   Wilson draws 23% of the Jets targets and averages 2.7 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Mahomes vs the blitz: 6.9 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Jets blitz on 34% of dropbacks (6th-most).

   Mahomes's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.76 seconds on average, scrambles on 6.8% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Walker to the left: 5.6 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and Jets give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.

   Kelce draws 18% of the Chiefs targets and averages 3.5 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Wilson leads the Jets in receiving yards in 38% of sims.

   Smith throws for 300+ in 8%.

   Allen runs for 100+ in 18%.

   Allen scores a touchdown in 40%, the likeliest on his team.

   Kelce leads the Chiefs in receiving yards in 29% of sims.

   Mahomes throws for 300+ in 16%.

   Walker runs for 100+ in 45%.

   Walker scores a touchdown in 72%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Allen runs for 90+ (23% of sims), they win 53%, up from 23%.

   When Jets run for 110+ yards (30% of sims), they win 50%, up from 23%.

   When Walker runs for 130+ (25% of sims), they win 97%, up from 76%.

7. Reality check

   Jets score 21.2 a game (last 8). In the sims: 16.9 against this defense.

   Chiefs score 23.9 a game (last 7). In the sims: 26.8 against this defense.

   Smith: 239.1 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 202.

   Cooper: 4 catches, 82.7 yds a game (last 3). In the sims: 1.6, 22.

   Allen: 70.6 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 66.

   Mahomes: 256.4 pass yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 235.

   Rice: 5 catches, 60.8 yds a game (last 4). In the sims: 3.8, 48.

   Walker: 110 rush yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 100.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Chiefs win 76% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (KC −9.5): the Chiefs cover in 52%.

   Total 46.5: over in 40%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: the sims vs the price

   • Kenneth Walker IIIanytime TD
     72%of sims
     67%books imply