Jaguars vs Titans prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stJAX 49-yd field goal 3–0
2. 1stTEN Pollard 2-yd TD run 3–7
3. 2ndTEN 30-yd field goal 3–10
4. 2ndJAX 30-yd field goal 6–10
5. 2ndTEN 56-yd field goal 6–13
6. 3rdJAX Punt returned for a TD 13–13
7. 3rdJAX Lawrence to Meyers, 17-yd TD 20–13
8. 4thJAX Rodriguez 1-yd TD run 27–13

Box score

The breakdown

1. Who's in the sim

   Jaguars: QB Lawrence · Washington 22% of targets · Meyers 17% of targets · Strange 14% of targets · Tuten 47% of carries

   Titans: QB Ward · Robinson 24% of targets · Ayomanor 16% of targets · Helm 16% of targets · Pollard 69% of carries

2. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

3. What decides it

   After the catch. Titans gain −0.4 yards after the catch vs expected (5th-worst). Jaguars allow −0.5 (2nd-best tackling).

   On the ground. Titans average 4.2 yards a carry (17th of 32). Jaguars allow 3.9 (3rd-fewest).

   Through the air. Jaguars complete −0.8 pts more passes than expected (18th of 32). Titans allow +3.8 pts vs expected (2nd-most generous).

   Lawrence vs the blitz: 7.2 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Titans blitz on 27% of dropbacks (6th-fewest).

   Lawrence's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.79 seconds on average, scrambles on 5.5% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Tuten to the left: 4.2 yards a carry there (39% of his runs), and Titans give up +0.4 yards a carry on that side.

   Washington draws 22% of the Jaguars targets and averages 2.3 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Ward vs the blitz: 4.7 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Jaguars blitz on 31% of dropbacks (14th of 32).

   Ward's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.89 seconds on average, scrambles on 5.5% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Pollard to the right: 5.2 yards a carry there (36% of his runs), and Jaguars give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.

   Robinson draws 24% of the Titans targets and averages 3.2 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

4. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Washington leads the Jaguars in receiving yards in 41% of sims.

   Lawrence throws for 300+ in 23%.

   Tuten runs for 100+ in 11%.

   Washington scores a touchdown in 43%, the likeliest on his team.

   Robinson leads the Titans in receiving yards in 38% of sims.

   Ward throws for 300+ in 4%.

   Pollard runs for 100+ in 18%.

   Pollard scores a touchdown in 36%, the likeliest on his team.

5. What swings it

   When Pollard runs for 90+ (23% of sims), they win 49%, up from 21%.

   When Titans run for 110+ yards (33% of sims), they win 45%, up from 21%.

   When Jaguars run for 140+ yards (32% of sims), they win 95%, up from 78%.

6. Reality check

   Jaguars score 28.6 a game (last 8). In the sims: 26.5 against this defense.

   Titans score 18 a game (last 8). In the sims: 16.5 against this defense.

   Lawrence: 241.5 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 249.

   Washington: 3.6 catches, 61.6 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4, 61.

   Tuten: 65.1 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 55.

   Ward: 185.4 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 184.

   Robinson: 4.4 catches, 32.8 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4.9, 46.

   Pollard: 74.4 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 65.

7. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Jaguars win 78% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (JAX −10.5): the Jaguars cover in 47%.

   Total 46.5: over in 38%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

8. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Elic Ayomanor1+ catches
     88%of sims
     93Our Rating
   • Parker Washington1+ catches
     97%of sims
     91Our Rating
   • Jakobi Meyers30+ rec yds
     64%of sims
     90Our Rating
     71%books imply
   • Brian Thomas Jr.1+ catches
     78%of sims
     89Our Rating
   • Trevor Lawrence175+ pass yds
     87%of sims
     89Our Rating
     90%books imply