Jaguars vs Ravens prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stBAL Henry 28-yd TD run 0–7
2. 1stJAX 48-yd field goal 3–7
3. 2ndJAX 46-yd field goal 6–7
4. 2ndBAL Flowers to Andrews, 8-yd TD 6–14
5. 3rdJAX Lawrence to Washington, 26-yd TD 13–14
6. 3rdJAX Tuten 2-yd TD run 20–14

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Ravens start Zay Flowers, who took 0% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.

2. Who's in the sim

   Jaguars: QB Lawrence · Washington 21% of targets · Meyers 17% of targets · Strange 17% of targets · Tuten 50% of carries

   Ravens: QB Flowers · Flowers 25% of targets · Andrews 18% of targets · Hill 12% of targets · Henry 70% of carries. Out: Tyler Huntley, Joe Fagnano

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   Takeaways. Ravens throw an interception on 3% of passes (3rd-most). Jaguars pick off 3% (the most).

   Through the air. Ravens complete −1.9 pts more passes than expected (3rd-worst). Jaguars allow −0.1 pts vs expected (15th of 32 generous).

   The pass rush. Jaguars take a sack on 7% of dropbacks (15th of 32). Ravens get home on 6% (7th-fewest), blitzing on 32% of dropbacks.

   Lawrence vs the blitz: 7.1 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Ravens blitz on 32% of dropbacks (13th of 32).

   Lawrence's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.79 seconds on average, scrambles on 5.7% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Tuten to the left: 4.5 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and Ravens give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.

   Washington draws 21% of the Jaguars targets and averages 2.3 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Flowers's pocket: scrambles on 5.7% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Henry to the right: 4.5 yards a carry there (39% of his runs), and Jaguars give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   Flowers draws 25% of the Ravens targets and averages 3.2 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Small sample: Zay Flowers's numbers rest on 1 dropbacks, so they are shrunk toward a typical backup.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Washington leads the Jaguars in receiving yards in 38% of sims.

   Lawrence throws for 300+ in 19%.

   Tuten runs for 100+ in 10%.

   Tuten scores a touchdown in 41%, the likeliest on his team.

   Flowers leads the Ravens in receiving yards in 54% of sims.

   Flowers throws for 300+ in 7%.

   Henry runs for 100+ in 26%.

   Henry scores a touchdown in 48%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Ravens run for 140+ yards (32% of sims), they win 65%, up from 33%.

   When Henry runs for 100+ (26% of sims), they win 66%, up from 33%.

   When Jaguars run for 140+ yards (27% of sims), they win 92%, up from 66%.

7. Reality check

   Jaguars score 28 a game (last 7). In the sims: 24.6 against this defense.

   Ravens score 22.4 a game (last 8). In the sims: 19 against this defense.

   Lawrence: 243.1 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 239.

   Washington: 4 catches, 64.9 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 3.9, 58.

   Tuten: 64.4 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 54.

   Flowers: 0 pass yds a game (last 1). In the sims: 201.

   Flowers: 5.7 catches, 86.9 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 4.8, 62.

   Henry: 79.2 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 76.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Jaguars win 66% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (JAX −9.5): the Jaguars cover in 39%.

   Total 41.5: over in 54%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: the sims vs the price

   • Brian Thomas Jr.20+ rec yds
     52%of sims
     34%books imply
   • Brian Thomas Jr.2+ catches
     56%of sims
     38%books imply
   • Mark Andrews25+ rec yds
     55%of sims
     42%books imply
   • Zay Flowers50+ rec yds
     57%of sims
     48%books imply
   • Zay Flowers5+ catches
     50%of sims
     42%books imply