Giants vs Eagles prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stNYG McCarthy 1-yd TD run 7–0
2. 2ndNYG McCarthy to Likely, 2-yd TD 14–0
3. 2ndPHI Barkley 3-yd TD run 14–7
4. 2ndNYG 35-yd field goal 17–7
5. 4thPHI 39-yd field goal 17–10
6. 4thNYG 30-yd field goal 20–10
7. 4thPHI Milton to Goedert, 7-yd TD 20–17

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Eagles start Joe Milton III, who took 0% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.

   Giants start J.J. McCarthy, who took 11% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.

   Wind: 14 mph forecast, which trims the deep passing and long kicks.

   Giants blitz on 36% of dropbacks (3rd-most in the NFL).

2. Who's in the sim

   Giants: QB McCarthy · Nabers 31% of targets · Likely 28% of targets · Fields 15% of targets · Skattebo 61% of carries. Out: Tyrone Tracy Jr.

   Eagles: QB Milton · Lemon 23% of targets · Goedert 21% of targets · Cooper 15% of targets · Barkley 59% of carries. Back: Barkley (missed 2 of 8), Goedert (missed 2 of 8). Out: Dameon Pierce, Jalen Hurts

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   After the catch. Eagles gain −0.5 yards after the catch vs expected (2nd-worst). Giants allow −0.3 (9th-best tackling).

   Through the air. Giants complete −1.6 pts more passes than expected (10th-worst). Eagles allow −2.7 pts vs expected (2nd-least generous).

   Takeaways. Eagles throw an interception on 3% of passes (3rd-most). Giants pick off 2% (20th of 32).

   McCarthy vs the blitz: 5.6 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Eagles blitz on 28% of dropbacks (10th-fewest).

   McCarthy's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.97 seconds on average, scrambles on 5.3% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Skattebo to the left: 4.8 yards a carry there (35% of his runs), and Eagles give up +0.4 yards a carry on that side.

   Nabers draws 31% of the Giants targets and averages 2.9 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Milton's pocket: scrambles on 6.1% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Barkley to the right: 4.2 yards a carry there (41% of his runs), and Giants give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.

   Lemon draws 23% of the Eagles targets and averages 2.9 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Small sample: Joe Milton III's numbers rest on 27 dropbacks, so they are shrunk toward a typical backup.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Nabers leads the Giants in receiving yards in 45% of sims.

   McCarthy throws for 300+ in 6%.

   Skattebo runs for 100+ in 24%.

   Nabers scores a touchdown in 38%, the likeliest on his team.

   Goedert leads the Eagles in receiving yards in 32% of sims.

   Milton throws for 300+ in 3%.

   Barkley runs for 100+ in 30%.

   Barkley scores a touchdown in 47%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Eagles run for 160+ yards (30% of sims), they win 82%, up from 47%.

   When Giants run for 150+ yards (29% of sims), they win 85%, up from 52%.

   When Barkley runs for 110+ (23% of sims), they win 81%, up from 47%.

7. Reality check

   Giants score 23.3 a game (last 7). In the sims: 20.5 against this defense.

   Eagles score 17.1 a game (last 8). In the sims: 19.9 against this defense.

   McCarthy: 247.5 pass yds a game (last 2). In the sims: 198.

   Nabers: 6.9 catches, 86.4 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 5.1, 65.

   Skattebo: 69.7 rush yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 73.

   Milton: 0 pass yds a game (last 1). In the sims: 185.

   Goedert: 4.3 catches, 43 yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 4.4, 44.

   Barkley: 45.7 rush yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 81.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Giants win 52% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (NYG −3.5): the Giants cover in 44%.

   Total 38.5: over in 54%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: the sims vs the price

   • Saquon Barkley70+ rush yds
     53%of sims
     44%books imply
   • Isaiah Likely50+ rec yds
     53%of sims
     48%books imply